When former Archbishop Rowan Williams announced in March 2012 that he was standing down as Archbishop of Canterbury, bookmakers started taking bets on his successor.
Bishop John Sentamu, then Archbishop of York, was the clear favourite, with the Bishops of London, Liverpool and Bradford among others in the running.
One of the frontrunners said to me: “You mustn’t believe the stories in the press about bishops jockeying for position. It’s more like a group of men sitting around a table, passing a revolver from one to another, knowing that one of them is going to get the bullet.”
On 7 November 2012, both Ladbrokes and William Hill suddenly suspended betting on the new archbishop. They had noticed a “very significant move” in the betting towards a rank outsider. Justin Welby, the Bishop of Durham, hadn’t even been at the table.
Welby had been a bishop for less than a year, and some of his five children hadn’t even moved schools from his previous posting when his new appointment as the 105th Archbishop of Canterbury was announced.
Some time in the coming weeks, Welby will announce that he is leaving Lambeth Palace after 12 turbulent years in the post. The law requires him to step down by 6 January 2026 when he will be 70 – though an extension of 12 months would be possible in exceptional circumstances. Soon the betting is likely to open on his successor.
The winner (or loser) in the contest will inherit not one but four jobs. He or she will be the Ordinary of the Diocese of Canterbury, the Primate of All England, a member of the House of Lords and the spiritual head of the worldwide Anglican Communion.
A review of the roles in 2001 by Lord (Douglas) Hurd concluded that the job had become unmanageable and needed to be reformed. His main suggestion was that the Archbishop of Canterbury should be freed up to concentrate on his role as leader of the Anglican Communion around the world, with the Archbishop of York leading on matters in the UK.
Welby might have enjoyed that role. Insiders say that he is rarely caught smiling except when he is out of the country. But none of Lord Hurd’s proposals were implemented. As a result, Justin Welby has looked exhausted and stressed for most of his years in office.
Part of the problem is that although the archbishop has considerable convening power, and a public voice that can garner headlines positive and negative, he has almost no executive power in the Church. There’s no such thing as an archiepiscopal encyclical letter. The vast majority of Anglican worshippers live outside the UK, but the Archbishop of Canterbury can’t even tell other English bishops what to do, let alone those in the rest of the world.
Some time in the next 12 months, a Crown Nominations Commission (CNC) will convene to choose Welby’s successor. It will be made up of the Archbishop of York with another senior bishop, and six members of the General Synod. They will be joined by three representatives of the Canterbury Diocese, and five overseas members chosen from the regions of the worldwide communion.
At Welby’s initiative, there has been a reduction in the representation from Canterbury and an increase in those from the rest of the world – a move aimed to give the international role greater legitimacy. There will also be a voting chair appointed by Sir Keir Starmer. In the end, the CNC will make its recommendation to the prime minister, who will convey it to the King, who makes the appointment.
In theory, the next archbishop could come from outside England – but that’s not likely. However godly and competent they might be, bringing a bishop in from Africa or the United States and giving them an automatic seat in the House of Lords and the job of crowning a future monarch wouldn’t help the Church’s credibility.
Age matters. If the next archbishop is to have time to make an impact, they probably need to be in their fifties. That narrows the field considerably. The hugely capable Archbishop of York, Stephen Cottrell, might be an interim candidate, but he will be 67 by the time the removal vans pull up at Lambeth Palace. And anyway, he would hate it.
Gender matters too. Rachel Treweek, the Bishop of Gloucester, and Helen-Ann Hartley, the Bishop of Newcastle, are hugely effective. But large parts of the shaky Anglican Communion still see women in leadership roles as anathema.
It may be incomprehensible to the majority of the population, but the decision is likely to hinge on the candidates’ views on sexuality. Gay sex is by far the most neuralgic issue in the Church of England. Even a mild comment from Welby in answer to a question by Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart in their podcast The Rest is Politics: Leading, suggesting that he and the majority of bishops believed that “all sexual activity should be within a committed relationship … whether it’s straight or gay”, called down the ire of conservative church leaders across England and around the world.
In recent months, the CNC has been deadlocked over the issue, and has failed to appoint new bishops in key dioceses such as Carlisle and Ely. It is hard to see how Canterbury will be any different, especially when a two-thirds majority of voting members of the CNC is required to make a recommendation. Just six voters could block a candidate.
When and if an appointment is made, be they conservative or liberal, it will be hugely divisive. If we needed an indication of just how deep and personal this rift is, consider the Alliance, a confederation of conservative networks within the Church of England who affirm what they regard as the “orthodox” teaching of the Church on sexuality. The Alliance has links throughout the Anglican Communion, not least through the founder of the Alpha Course, the Revd Nicky Gumbel.
Ironically, Gumbel was a key mentor to Welby from his conversion onwards, and was vicar of the church that sent him for ordination. It is highly likely that Gumbel had a significant role in Welby’s meteoric rise, and it is equally likely that he will play a role in brokering the appointment of his successor. Part of the power of the Alliance lies in the threat to withhold funds if the Church moves further in a liberal direction. The Church of England may literally not be able to afford to appoint a progressive archbishop.
Which brings us to the figures gathered around the table this time, uneasily passing the revolver. Martyn Snow, the current Bishop of Leicester, has taken the lead on Living in Love and Faith, the process the Church has used to try to avoid coming to a conclusion on issues of human sexuality. He abstained in a recent General Synod vote on “standalone services” of blessing for gay couples. For reasons that will have become clear, being non-committal on sexuality is often a sign of ambition for higher office. Snow could get credit for having “taken one for the team” by leading on such a difficult issue. But the Church of England generally uses preferment to settle its scores, not its debts.
Graham Usher, the Bishop of Norwich, has been consistently pro-LGBT. He has even apologised for the harm the Church has caused to gay couples. The practice might come in useful, since apologies will be a major part of the new archbishop’s job, if Welby’s experience is anything to go by. Usher grew up in Ghana, has a degree in ecology and keeps bees, so he could hardly be more of a centrist Anglican. But while secular elections are won from the centre ground, archbishoprics seldom are.
The Bishop of Chelmsford, Guli Francis-Dehqani, has been admired by many for her emphasis on Christian spirituality and service, rather than programmes, targets and management-speak. Her background is unusual. Her father was the Anglican bishop of Iran, and her mother was injured in an assassination attempt on him in 1979. She speaks for the Church on housing and migration. But she is also broadly in favour of inclusion for LGBT couples, and that, together with her gender, could easily add up to six vetoes on the commission.
So to the outsiders. The Bishop of Chester, Mark Tanner, is an evangelical with the lowest of low profiles. His abstention in the synod vote on “standalone services” may have been tactical. His record on the management of safeguarding issues in his own diocese may count against him, but he would be worth an outside bet.
Finally, there is Paul Williams, the equally unremarkable Bishop of Southwell and Nottingham. His conservative evangelical credentials are impeccable, and he knows Gumbel and many others in the Alliance. He was made bishop at 41, and is not afraid to line up with those who are resistant to change in Church and society.
The role of Archbishop of Canterbury is not one that anyone sensible would aspire to.
Justin Welby has hung on with grim determination, born of a sense that those who are destined to serve the Church are required to suffer for it. His tenure has been overshadowed by conflicts over sexuality, and some of his closest friends have been revealed to have been serial abusers.
In spite of his repeated setting of ambitious growth targets, the demographic of Church of England attendance slides relentlessly south.
The 106th occupant of the Chair of St Augustine will know that they are stepping undefended into a Church at war with itself.
But of course, even in the
Church of England, the grace of God may prevail.