For decades, Taiwan has watched one ally after another cut diplomatic
ties under pressure from China. Since 2016 alone, 10 countries have
switched recognition from Taipei to Beijing, leaving only a dozen states
that maintain full formal relations with Taiwan today, among them, the
Holy See.
The
island democracy’s only embassy on European soil looks onto St. Peter’s
Basilica from the Via della Conciliazione, making the Vatican one of
the most visible places in the world where the flag of the Republic of
China (Taiwan) is flown publicly in defiance of the Chinese Communist
Party’s view that Taiwan does not exist as a country.
“The
Vatican is the only country in Europe that still recognizes Taiwan,”
said Taiwanese Deputy Foreign Minister François Chihchung Wu in an
interview with the Register. “And we need to maintain this kind of
diplomatic relation because it is the source of the legitimacy of our
government. So we are continuing to work very hard to work with the
Vatican and trying to maintain this diplomatic relation, which is
crucial for us.”
That
political tension surfaced again in the last days of 2025, as China
launched its biggest ever military drill around Taiwan after the U.S.
announced an $11-billion arms sale to Taiwan. China’s leader, Xi
Jinping, told U.S. President Donald Trump in a phone call on Nov. 24
that “Taiwan’s return to China is an important part of the postwar
international order,” according to Chinese state media.
For Beijing,
persuading the Holy See to abandon Taiwan would be a geopolitical prize.
The specter that the Vatican might sacrifice its long-standing ties
with Taipei for full relations with Beijing has surfaced under every
21st-century pontificate, reaching its peak under Pope Francis, who
dreamed of becoming the first pope to visit China.
But the election of Pope Leo XIV in May has rekindled fresh hope in Taiwan.
On
a recent trip to Taipei, I met President Lai Ching-te and senior
officials who described the Vatican’s unique place in Taiwan’s
diplomatic outlook. I also saw firsthand how a Catholic missionary
presence continues to thrive on the island, with 90 religious
congregations active across Taiwan, proclaiming the Gospel in Chinese — a
stark contrast to conditions in mainland China, where religious freedom
has sharply deteriorated under Xi and minors are barred from entering
Catholic churches and other religious sites.
My
weeklong reporting trip to Taiwan was made possible by funding from the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (ROC). The Holy
See Press Office and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s
Republic of China (PRC) did not respond to request for comment for this
article.
For Taiwanese
leaders, the Vatican’s recognition is deeply valued. They frequently
point to Taiwan’s democratic system and its high global rankings for
press and religious freedom, metrics in which Taiwan outpaces the United
States.
Taiwan’s
foreign minister, Lin Chia-lung, told the Register that he understands
why the Holy See might seek connections with Beijing, but insisted “this
should not contradict diplomatic ties with Taiwan.” He added, “We
really cherish the freedom of religion that we have right now. And I
believe that, in this regard, Taiwan can have more cooperation with the
Holy See going forward.”
Wu,
who traveled to Rome for Pope Leo’s inauguration, spoke candidly about
what Taipei hopes the new Pope will recognize. “The formal support of
the Vatican to a free Chinese-speaking society is very, very important,”
he said.
For Wu, Taiwan represents a model: a Chinese-speaking democracy where Catholicism can flourish unimpeded.
“Taiwan is not part
of China,” he said. “We can be a very important model for China. … The
existence of Taiwan is very, very important for the future of every
Chinese-speaking society, but especially for China.”
Yet
the Vatican’s relationship with Taiwan has always been complex. The
Holy See first established ties with the Republic of China in 1942, when
Chiang Kai-shek’s government was leading resistance against Japan in
mainland China in the Second Sino-Japanese War. After the Chinese Civil
War, when Chiang’s government retreated to Taiwan in 1949, the Vatican’s
apostolic nuncio remained on the mainland until the communist regime
expelled him in 1951 for objecting to Beijing’s plan to form a
state-controlled Catholic Church in China. Two years later, the
Apostolic Nunciature to China was moved to Taiwan.
The
shift in global politics in 1971 — when the United Nations transferred
China’s seat to Beijing and Taipei was expelled — triggered a Vatican
response. Pope Paul VI downgraded the Holy See’s diplomatic
representative in Taipei to a chargé d’affaires, a status that endures
today. Msgr. Stefano Mazzotti has served in that role since 2022.
Peter
Moody, an expert in international relations in East Asia and professor
emeritus at the University of Notre Dame, told the Register that Taiwan
values its relationship with the Vatican more than the Holy See values
its relationship with Taiwan.
For the Holy See,
“it’s a leftover of its relationship with China (Republic of China).
Beijing broke off relations with the Vatican in the early 1950s, and the
only way to maintain a relationship with ‘China’ was to move the
nunciature to Taipei,” he said.
This
arrangement for the Vatican’s presence in Taiwan feels fragile to many
in Taipei, particularly when the Holy See has pursued rapprochement with
Beijing. Under Pope Francis, the Vatican entered a controversial 2018
provisional agreement with China on the appointment of bishops, raising
fears in Taipei that the Vatican’s deeper ties with Beijing could come
at the cost of Taiwan’s last European ally.
“We are very worried that the Vatican could abandon Taiwan,” Wu said.
“Now with the new Pope, we have a new hope.”
Is ‘Double Recognition’ Possible?
Some
scholars in Taiwan offer cautious optimism. Thomas Tu, a doctoral
researcher in Taipei studying Vatican-Taiwan relations, says the idea of
“double recognition,” or the Holy See maintaining ties with both Taiwan
and Beijing, is unlikely but not impossible. He puts the chance at “a
10% or even less than 10%” that Rome could one day have a diplomatic
presence in both capitals.
“That would be a great example for every country,” he said.
Such an arrangement
would defy current diplomatic norms. Because of Beijing’s “One China”
policy, no state today holds full ties with both the PRC and the ROC.
But Tu argues that the Church’s diplomatic toolbox is unique, suggesting
Rome could appoint a “papal delegate” in Beijing while keeping its
nunciature in Taipei.
Tu, himself a Taiwanese Catholic, believes the Vatican is unlikely to sever ties with Taiwan.
Since
the Lateran Treaty of 1929, he said, the Holy See has relied on
international recognition to safeguard its sovereignty. It maintains
relations with 180 states, including 80 with embassies accredited to the
Vatican, and is reluctant to cut any. Taiwan’s religious freedom, he
added, has made the island a strategic hub for translating Vatican
materials into Mandarin.
Still, nearly every diplomat I interviewed acknowledged the same obstacle: Beijing would never accept dual recognition.
“I
don’t think the Chinese authorities will be willing to make fundamental
concessions which … the Holy See is willing to swallow … unless you
forget about Catholicism and whatever it represents in total,” said Tien
Hung-mao, Taiwan’s former foreign minister.
Moody
said that “a more realistic possibility is for the Holy See to move the
nunciature to Beijing and appoint some kind of papal delegate to
Taipei.”
“Both the Chinese sides would have to accept this,” he added. “And, so far, Beijing doesn’t see any reason to.”
Ambassador
Rong-chuan Wu, a senior adviser at the Institute for National Policy
Research, was blunt: “From the professional point of view, there’s no
possibility for the time being.”
Recognizing
Beijing, he warned, would be “a disaster” that could inflict
“tremendous damage to the Holy See,” making it appear as though the
Vatican had abandoned its principles.
For
some diplomats, that scenario has felt alarmingly plausible. Tien
recalled that within his first weeks as foreign minister in 2000, he
received a report that Vatican officials under Pope John Paul II were
considering switching recognition.
“For me at the
time, I was scared, right? I don’t want to be the foreign minister who
only in 10 days lost the Holy See,” he said. “So do you know what I did?
I flew to Rome … I met with the secretary of state of the Holy See. We
talked for two hours.”
Looking
ahead, Tien sees only one circumstance that might compel the Vatican to
switch recognition, a collapse of the Chinese Communist Party. “The
real question is: Is the Catholic Church, and the values and humanity it
represents, compatible with communism? My answer to that is No,” he
said.
Deputy
Minister Wu echoed those doubts. While he hopes geopolitical changes
might someday make dual recognition possible, he remains realistic.
“According to my perspective and all my experience, it would not be
possible. It’s not because we don’t want something … it’s because China
wants to conquer Taiwan, so they would never accept it, except if they
changed their president,” he said.
After
a pause, he added, “Today, if you’re looking at all the conditions,
looking at all the positions of China, it’s still impossible. But who
knows? Maybe with the will of God … just like how the Vatican changed
the Cold War with the arrival of a pope in Poland in 1980.”
‘Peace Be With You All’
From his first words on the loggia of St. Peter’s Basilica, Pope Leo XIV signaled that peace would be his diplomatic priority.
One does not have to look far to see headlines about the threat of a potential Chinese military invasion of Taiwan.
Taiwan’s former
president Tsai Ing-wen regularly responded to Pope Francis’ annual World
Day of Peace message, underscoring Taiwan’s commitment to peace amid
Chinese aggression.
At this year’s National Day reception in Rome, held days after The New York Times detailed “The Missiles Threatening Taiwan,” Taiwan’s new ambassador to the Holy See, Anthony Chung-Yi Ho, invoked the words of Pope John Paul II: “Do not be afraid.”
“Taiwan
faces constant challenges and threats from across the strait,” Ho said.
“We do not yield to fear. Instead, Taiwan rises with courage — standing
tall as a beacon of freedom and democracy.”
He
added, “We believe that true greatness lies not in power, but in love.
Guided by this conviction, Taiwan will continue to walk in unity with
the Holy See, building bridges of peace and charity.”
Pope
Leo is the first pope to have visited mainland China before his
election, but the China he saw in the early 2000s was far less
restrictive than China today under Xi Jinping. Still, many in Taiwan
hope Leo’s experience will give him clearer instincts on the reality of
human rights in China. They also point to the Pope’s first interview, in
which he said he intends to listen to “a significant group of Chinese
Catholics who for many years have lived some kind of oppression or
difficulty in living their faith freely” and is open to dialogue with “a
number of people, Chinese, on both sides.”
For
now, the Vatican may have the luxury of waiting to see who eventually
succeeds the 72-year-old Xi. Taiwan, however, fears it may not have that
time.
Leo,
who was elected pope amid the wars in Ukraine and the Holy Land, could
in the coming years face a new international crisis in the Taiwan
Strait.
And
if he were to decide to break with precedent and send a dramatic signal
of support for Taiwan from Rome, he could choose to travel there, a
possibility Taipei has openly encouraged.
Former president Tsai invited Pope Francis to Taiwan multiple times, including ahead of his 2024 trip to the Asia-Pacific.
“If
we can have the visit of the Pope to Taiwan … it would send a very
strong message … that Catholicism can be practiced without problem in a
Chinese-speaking society,” Wu said, “that the Chinese people also have
the right, also have the possibility to live in a democratic country, in
a free society. They are not condemned only to live under the Chinese
communist rule.”
