A charismatic leader dubbed the "Bishop of the Poor" is an make history as the first Roman Catholic bishop elected president of a country.
The Vatican is not pleased, and it's not alone: Fernando Lugo's candidacy not only tests the church's strict prohibition on clergy seeking political office, it also challenges the established elites in Paraguay, where the poor majority feels disenfranchised after 6O years of unbroken rule by President Nicanor Duarte's Colorado Party.
With almost a year to go before the April 2008 presidential election, polls show Lugo has nearly 40 percent support, 10 points ahead of his closest rival. Thousands turn out at his rallies, sometimes on horse-drawn wagons, chanting "Lugo, si!" at his vows to end one-party rule.
Like many Paraguayans, Lugo blames the Colorados for a bad economy, rampant corruption and politics that favor rich elites in the landlocked agrarian nation.
"I believe the official party is responsible for the poverty, the corruption and the dishonesty in this country," Lugo said, stroking a trim gray beard in an interview at his brother's home. "We need a country that's more just and more equitable."
Lugo, who resigned as bishop in December to sidestep Paraguay's constitutional ban on clergy seeking office, sees politics as a solution to problems of his flock in the San Pedro region, where he spent nearly 11 years ministering to hungry peasants who toil in cotton and soybean fields of rich landowners.
"We did everything possible there to help the people out of poverty and misery," he said.
There, Lugo used his pulpit to rally the poor to help themselves. He hasn't said exactly what he would do as president, but he said recent travels indicate people want agrarian reform, industrial production and more jobs.
Lugo's presidential aspirations could founder if the fractured opposition doesn't unite behind him against the Colorados. A legal challenge by Duarte also could derail his campaign.
"That candidacy is unconstitutional," said Duarte, himself constitutionally barred from seeking re-election. "Lugo is a member of the clergy who doesn't know if he's a bishop or what."
Lugo said such statements show the political establishment's fear.
"If I had only 2 or 3 percent in the polls, nobody would be challenging me," he said. "I believe the Colorado Party, not wanting to leave the perks of power, is going to throw up any arguments it can to stop this candidacy."
The Vatican has refused to accept Lugo's resignation, saying bishophood is "for life," and the head of the Paraguayan Bishops Conference has suggested Lugo risks excommunication if he keeps up his campaign.
The Vatican came down even harder against Haiti's first democratically elected leader, Jean Bertrand Aristide, a leftist priest and strong advocate of liberation theology who was expelled by his conservative Salesian order for preaching class struggle. When soldiers ousted Aristide in 1991, the Vatican was the only foreign state to recognize the military regime.
Also, Pope John Paul II famously admonished a Jesuit priest appointed Nicaragua's culture minister with a wag of his finger. And Jesuit priest Robert Drinan represented Massachusetts in the U.S. Congress for 11 years until the Vatican officially said he should not hold the post, and he stepped down.
"Merely seeking a job in government causes problems for the Vatican, let alone running for president," explained Georgetown University theologian Thomas Reese.
"This is way outside the bounds of what the Vatican wants clergy to do. Sacramentally he is a priest forever once he's ordained."
Pope Benedict XVI weighed in on the issue last month, telling a Latin American bishops conference that the "political task is not the immediate competence of the Church."
Benedict also has taken a hard line against liberation theology, a Catholic movement that remains strong in Latin America, which holds that Christianity's central mission is to free the poor from oppression.
Lugo said liberation theology is just one of many influences on his thinking, and noted that former popes have called responsible politics a "healthy and just activity."
"I have freely and in good conscience renounced my priestly ministry," he said. "What I have freely decided to do cannot be judged by others."
Dozens of peasant, farm, labor, Indian and leftist groups back Lugo, but he resists ideological labels, saying for example that he embraces "socially responsible" capitalism.
"I am not of the left, nor of the right. I'm in the middle as a candidate sought by many people," he said.
Paraguayan political analyst Alcibiades Gonzalez Delvalle characterizes Lugo as a moderate, more pragmatist than ideologue.
"There are people on the left around him but he doesn't yield to that tendency too much," Gonzalez said. "Lugo has lived in a very poor area where many gripping situations unfolded, and that has made a deep impression."
Lugo's critics critics say otherwise.
"Underneath that cassock and that big cross he wore on his chest, he was into politics," said Alberto Soljancic, president of Paraguay's powerful Rural Association of large landholders and farmers.
He suggested that Lugo's ministry to the poor emboldened landless groups to invade farms in San Pedro, though he did not blame Lugo directly.
He also questioned why Lugo visited communist-run Cuba after launching his campaign: "There are a lot of countries one can visit, but why Cuba?"
But many poor Paraguayans say a priest is just the one to lead their country.
"We want a change," said Miriam Aquino, who earns US$10 (€7.40) a day selling clothes on the street. "Every president who takes office says many things and then doesn't do anything. There's corruption and we are tired. With Lugo, there's hope."
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