Analysis: The great constitutional question always
hangs over Northern Ireland.
The 2011 census figures released yesterday
show that 48 per cent of the Northern Ireland population comes from a
Protestant background while 45 per cent is from a Catholic background.
For the first time, Protestants are a minority in terms of the overall
population.
In round terms, there are 864,000 people who are or
were brought up as Protestants compared to 810,000 Catholics – a
difference of just 54,000.
A significant narrowing of the sectarian
divide from the 2001 census, when there were 890,000 such Protestants
and 740,000 such Catholics in Northern Ireland – a difference of
150,000.
This will cheer up those nationalists who think in terms
of crude sectarian headcounts, particularly if that trend continues.
But
what will please similar unionists is that just one in four of the
North’s 1.8 million people sees themselves as exclusively Irish.
Catholic up, Protestant down
The
overall population from a Catholic background is up from 44 to 45 per
cent since the 2001 census, while the Protestant figure is down from 53
per cent to 48 per cent. That decline is mainly down to mortality and
some migration.
The census shows that 17 per cent of the
population had no religion or did not state their religion, while 41 per
cent declared themselves Catholic. When you tot up the figures for the
Presbyterian (19 per cent), Church of Ireland (14 per cent), Methodist
(3 per cent) and other Christian and Christian-related denominations
(5.8 per cent), it totals 41.8 per cent – barely above the Catholic
figure.
But what fascinate are the figures around identity.
Two-fifths (40 per cent) said they were British only, a quarter said
they were exclusively Irish and just over one-fifth (21 per cent) said
they were Northern Irish only.
That latter figure means that 378,000
people in Northern Ireland – a broad spectrum of Northern society from
unionist and nationalist areas – view themselves as simply Northern
Irish. This reflects shifts recently explored in our series on Northern
Ireland.
What the census clearly demonstrates is that Northern
Ireland is changing and unionists and nationalists would be wise to be
mindful of how that change is managed.
Scrutiny of the information
might persuade the unionist politicians who are getting so agitated
over the British union flag and the loyalists who are threatening and
attempting murder and causing havoc around the issue “to wind their
necks in”, as they say up here.
A more cautious approach from Sinn
Féin and the SDLP at Belfast City Hall might have been helpful. They
could have bided their time on the flag, allowing the census figures
sink into the unionist consciousness, to demonstrate more vividly that
Belfast is no longer a unionist city.
Unionist politicians can
take some comfort that just 25 per cent of the population consider
themselves solely Irish.
But unionist politicians can also do the
arithmetic. If there are 864,000 people from a Protestant background and
810,000 from a Catholic background, then they should know it’s in their
interests to keep on side those Catholics who are happy with the
current powersharing that recognises Irish identity.
Ignoring
local democracy as was applied, however cack-handedly, at Belfast City
Hall over the union flag signals a very self-serving and selective
understanding of democracy.
If unionism refuses to act smart and with
respect, it could rapidly alienate the Catholics First Minister Peter
Robinson knows he needs to maintain the union.