Attendance at papal audiences and liturgical celebrations rose sharply in 2025, reaching 3.17 million participants, according to figures published by the Prefecture of the Papal Household, marking an 88 per cent increase on the previous year after more than a decade of steady decline.
The data, covering general audiences, liturgical celebrations, and Angelus prayers, show a year divided between the final months of Pope Francis’s pontificate and the first eight months of Pope Leo XIV.
Taken together, they point to a clear numerical recovery, though one that follows a long period of contraction in public participation at Vatican events.
At the start of Pope Francis’s pontificate in 2013, annual attendance exceeded 7.3 million, one of the highest totals ever recorded.
From that point, participation fell almost without interruption.
By 2024, the number had declined to 1,682,100, less than a quarter of the level seen at the beginning of his pontificate, with no subsequent year managing to reverse the trend in a sustained way.
In the opening months of 2025, attendance remained historically low.
Figures for January to April, during the final phase of Francis’s pontificate, show a total of 262,820 participants.
January recorded 35,000 at general and Jubilee audiences, 8,500 at special audiences, 26,000 at liturgical celebrations, and 60,000 at the Angelus.
February saw a further fall, with 25,500 at general audiences, 1,750 at special audiences, 36,000 at liturgies, and 30,000 at the Angelus.
March and April were marked by limited public engagements, including just 70 people recorded for special audiences in April and an Angelus attendance of 40,000 that month.
Pope Francis’s final general audience took place on 12 February, shortly before his hospitalisation and death.
By that stage, participation had reached its lowest point of the pontificate.
The election of Pope Leo XIV in May produced an immediate numerical increase. From May to December, 2.9 million people attended papal events.
In May alone, there were 55,000 participants at general audiences, 11,000 at special audiences, 106,000 at liturgical celebrations, and 200,000 at the Angelus.
June recorded 151,000 at general audiences, 18,000 at special audiences, 218,000 at liturgies, and 100,000 at the Angelus.
Attendance dipped during the summer months, with July recording 35,000 at general audiences and August 76,000, before rising again in the autumn.
September saw 180,000 at general audiences, 24,500 at special audiences, 136,000 at liturgies, and 60,000 at the Angelus.
October marked the peak month, with 295,000 attending general audiences, alongside 54,000 at special audiences, 200,000 at liturgical celebrations, and 50,000 at the Angelus.
November and December remained strong, closing the year with totals of 200,000 and 77,000 respectively for general audiences.
While the increase under Leo XIV is significant, the figures remain well below those recorded at the beginning of Francis’s pontificate, when annual attendance regularly surpassed seven million.
While there has been a positive surge in public visibility, what few have noted is that numerical recovery or any optical revival in Rome is not a substitute for doctrinal clarity and ecclesial confidence.
The Church is not a democracy. She is not sustained by popularity alone, but by coherence between what she proclaims, how she governs, and how she understands the human person before God.
The so-called “Leo effect” risks being misunderstood if treated as evidence of renewal rather than as a test of whether the Church has learned anything from the long decline that preceded it.
After years of falling participation during the latter part of Pope Francis’s pontificate, the sudden influx of pilgrims and visitors has been framed as a vindication of continuity.
The logic appears obvious if visibility is read as confirmation.
Yet the Church’s own history warns against such assumptions. Often misattributed to Pope Saint John Paul II, but relevant here, is the saying that “we must defend the truth at all costs, even if we are reduced to just twelve again”.
Periods of visible vitality have often coincided with doctrinal ambiguity, while times of numerical weakness have sometimes been those of greatest theological clarity.
Leo XIV has been explicit about his intentions.
Addressing the College of Cardinals on 10 May, he urged them to “take up this precious legacy [of Pope Francis] and continue on the journey”, a formulation that left little doubt that he sees himself as an heir rather than a corrector.
Since the start of the pontificate, matters of pastoral emphasis and tone have so far preserved the same basic posture that defined the previous one.
The prolonged decline in engagement over the past decade did not occur overnight.
It unfolded alongside years of contested disputes with Rome, especially on moral theology and liturgical preference, exacerbated by a style of papal communication that often favoured unprepared, off-the-cuff remarks over precision.
For many Catholics, the result was not liberation but uncertainty.
Participation fell not because the Church was too demanding, but because she increasingly appeared unsure of what she wished to demand at all.
Leo XIV inherits this landscape and, in important respects, has chosen not to redraw it. Doctrinally, his approach to contested pastoral questions has so far mirrored that of his predecessor, maintaining a posture of openness.
At the same time, there have been subtler signals of adjustment.
Reforms within Vatican governance, including financial oversight and administrative restructuring, and episcopal appointments in several regions suggest a recalibration, favouring candidates who are local and administratively capable.
Most notably, there has been a visible return to more traditional vestments and papal attire. These moves, while modest, have been noticed by those who feared an unbroken continuation of the most destabilising tendencies of the Francis era.
The tension, however, remains unresolved. Popularity, even when real, does not answer the underlying question of credibility.
Crowds may gather out of curiosity, novelty, or relief, but they do not in themselves testify to renewed faith. The Church’s mission has never been to compete in the marketplace of approval.
This is why Leo XIV’s public manner matters as much as his policies. The habit of off-the-cuff remarks that characterised much of the previous pontificate has diminished but has not disappeared, resurfacing at times, most notably in comments to the media outside Castel Gandolfo.
At the same time, Leo XIV enjoys unusually high approval ratings in international polling, particularly in the United States and parts of Europe.
This confers a degree of soft power and shapes media narratives around his pontificate. Yet approval is a thin foundation for ecclesial renewal.
The most telling feature of the present moment, therefore, is not the rise in attendance but the combination of gestures towards doctrinal reassurance, modest recalibrations in governance, and a less confrontational style, which have helped stabilise a Church that under Pope Francis often appeared at war with itself.
This containment of internal conflict may explain why participation has rebounded without yet returning to historic levels.
The real test of this pontificate will not be how many gather in St Peter’s Square, but whether the Church emerges more certain of what she believes.