Following the Polish elections last week, the assumption is that over the next few weeks a new government will form as a result of a coalition between three parties led by Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska or “KO”), a so-called “centre right” party with a strong pro-EU stance and a socially liberal agenda.
KO are expected to be joined by the newly formed “Third Way” party, a pro-EU party which is seen to consist of farmers, the intelligentsia and liberal Catholics, and the “New Left”, a radically left wing party explicitly promoting unrestricted abortion, the LGBTQ agenda, and UK-style sex education in schools.
While the incumbent so-called “right wing”, “socially conservative” Law and Justice Party (Prawo I Sprawiedliwość or “PiS”) received the most votes (35.4 per cent compared to KO’s 30.7 per cent), this was not enough to secure power and none of the other leading parties have been willing to form a coalition with them.
The outgoing Law and Justice party enraged not just liberals but also conservatives during their time in power. Their so-called restrictive abortion regime, which was meant to allow abortion only for mothers in physical danger or when the pregnancy is the result of a crime, for example, has not been what it appears with exemptions recently having been introduced for mothers with poor mental health, something which many Catholics consider to be a gateway to completely arbitrary abortions based on superficial and subjective declarations or feelings. Things are now likely to change even more.
Asked what form the political landscape can be expected to take over the coming months, left-wing social commentator Sylwia Chutnik wrote: “It will remain difficult because internal social divisions are so entrenched, but there is enough support for progressive aspirations to make me hope that we can break the cycle of constant vitriol, tension and polarisation. To restore peace and slowly rebuild a democratic society is our task for the next four years. PiS managed to survive but its grip on power looks to be over for now. The overwhelming feeling today is of relief.”
The first law which is likely to be liberalised is that on family planning, protection of the human foetus and conditions of permissibility of abortion. Mr Tusk campaigned hard on social issues, such as abortion rights and the right to access emergency contraception, to mobilise his voters and, it seems, was rewarded by a surge in turnout among 18-to-49-year-olds, who gave most of their votes to KO.
Overall turnout was 72.9 per cent, the highest rate since the first election held after the fall of communism. The number of Poles registered to vote abroad more than doubled since the last election, exceeding 600,000 overall. “Much of this record turnout is likely due to opposition campaign messaging, which focused heavily on the slogan that this election was a last stand for Polish democracy, for the rights of Polish women, and for a close relationship with the European Union,” writes Anna Richards in The Spectator.
Piotr Bednarski, a married father-of-two who runs a Catholic men’s group in his parish in a small town outside Warsaw, however, thinks that many conservatives, especially Catholics, will have stayed at home, disillusioned by PiS’s aforementioned not-so-conservative stance on matters of life, along with their mixed track record on economic policy.
“In fact only part of PiS was socially conservative, while the larger part (over 50 per cent) was liberal-leaning,” explains Bednarski. “Although they did not actively push the pro-abortion agenda, they also did not actively fight gender ideology and the pro-abortion stance of EU. Their sin is being complacent and not really consequent in action.”
Following the election, Barbara Nowacka, a KO MP, said it was an important day. “Young women won’t be afraid to get pregnant, young women won’t be afraid to go to the doctor,” she said.
However, while legalising abortion is clearly a very important part of KO’s agenda, one of its coalition partners, the Third Way, is, it turns out, a reluctant supporter, with its leader stating following the election that “no social issues like abortion can ever be part of a coalition agreement”.
However, with all three parties being broadly pro-EU and globalist, it is expected that the WHO agenda will become an important driver of government health and education policy in this new term, something which Catholics are unlikely to support. KO and the “New Left”, for example, have given prominence to introducing WHO drafted explicit sex education presented as “anti-discrimination education” into Polish schools.
Until now in Poland same-sex marriage and adoption have not been allowed, but this is likely to be pushed during the coming term, being at the forefront of the New Left’s election agenda, but also an important part of KO’s desire to cooperate with the EU, which promotes a liberal social agenda.
It is also expected that the upcoming government will agree to the compulsory migrant quotas which have up until now been strongly resisted by the PiS government, but also on their own initiative will bring more migrants to Poland under the banner of supporting Polish economy and encouraging more diversity and tolerance, following trends already strongly present in the rest of Western Europe.
“This might dramatically change the cultural and social structure of Polish society if done on a large scale in a country which is relatively culturally and socially homogenous – a plus in pursuing common values and goals. Poland lacks a balanced migration policy similar to Switzerland’s or even Canada’s,” explains Bednarski.
“In summary, the election result will likely be a blow to the lives and rights of parents to protect their children from vulgar sex education in schools and kindergartens,” he adds.
“Secondly, it will also be a blow to family policy and the protection of marriage as a permanent union between a man and a woman.
“Thirdly, we can expect an attack on the rights of Christians, the autonomy of the Church and the freedom of speech and the right to criticise the radical demands of gender ideologues and LGBT activists.
“Finally, serious areas of our sovereignty – including the power to decide on matters of family, competitiveness or health policy will be transferred to the European Union and supranational organisations. Our everyday life is to be transformed.
“One thing is absolutely certain is that it will be on us Catholics, Christians and people who value freedom of conscience to defend life, family, freedom and the right to freely practise faith.”
But Bednarski sees a positive spin, which is that the result will galvanise Catholics in Poland into action, bring them together again in the face of a new crusade.
“Catholics in Poland, especially the parents and grandparents of today’s students, remember the fight of the communist government with the Church, especially the persecution of the Church whenever she wanted to speak in the public square on morality and social issues.
“A Church which goes through pain and puts its trust in God might come out stronger than the Church which operates in a ‘lazy’ fashion and believes that because of St John Paul II and the rejection of communism, we do not need to deepen our faith and be countercultural.”
Catholics in Poland are not going to like their new government, but perhaps it’s just what they need to re-ignite their faith.