ONLY about half of the 37,000 Catholic pilgrims in the United States who have expressed an interest in coming to Sydney for World Youth Day could show up for the single largest religious gathering in Australian history. The US Conference of Bishops has collated figures which show that fewer than 20,000 Catholic youths are expected to travel to Sydney in July, compared with 25,000 who went to Cologne in 2005.
The US is the single largest source of international tourists for the event, so the lower than expected numbers could force the Catholic church to revise its estimates of up to 125,000 international visitors for the day.
Many more might have committed to the pilgrimage, say US travel agents and group leaders, had fares and travel costs been more reasonably priced to reflect the event's religious nature.
They complain that major airlines flying from the US are charging premium prices for fares to Sydney, far in excess of what is usually charged in the Australian winter.
The organisers say many pilgrims will have to fly via Japan, Korea and Canada to keep travel costs down.
Sister Eileen McCann, the co-ordinator of Youth and Young Adult Ministries for the US Bishops' Conference, said discounted group seats for the prime days were difficult to find, contributing to the rising costs.
Another group tour leader, Sister Maryann Schaefer, of the Mary Help of Christians Academy, who is bringing 59 pilgrims to Sydney, was quoted air fares of $US4000 ($4297) when tickets were normally $US2100.
The group has been forced to split up and travel on different airlines and on different days to keep costs down.
One pilgrim, who could not book at the same time as the rest of the group because she did not have her passport, was charged an extra $US1016 a week later.
Airfares were "astronomical", Sister Schaefer said, "considering this is Australia's winter and considering the fact that this is a religious experience, not a tourist experience".
Sister McCann said accommodation and air fare packages - selling for between $US3400 and $US5600 - were beyond the reach of most university students who relied on holiday work to subsidise their tuition and other education expenses and could not afford to spend up to two weeks on a pilgrimage.
On top of this, help for Hurricane Katrina victims had depleted grant money that some US dioceses had set aside for World Youth Day travel. Sister McCann was hopeful Pope Benedict's visit to the US next month would not deter other pilgrims from coming to Sydney.
"The papal masses in DC and New York will be limited and ticketed," she said. "World Youth Day is more than seeing the Pope; it is about celebrating who we are as a universal church."
The chief operating officer of World Youth Day, Danny Casey, said Sydney organisers had been working with overseas pilgrims' leaders to find ways around capacity constraints.
He was aware the surging Australian dollar was continuing to erode the buying power of price-sensitive pilgrims.
Organisers had been urging pilgrims to take advantage of cheaper flights via Asia, to book early and directly with the airlines, to itemise any travel quotes and to have flexible itineraries.
"We want anyone who wants to come to World Youth Day in Sydney to be there and we would be disappointed if this was not the case," Mr Casey said.
"But the reality is there are caps on capacity with delays in the release of new aircraft and the extra factor of the strong Australian dollar."
Qantas said it had added a flight from the US, and had special pilgrim fares available. There were still seats available on this service, along with several hundred other seats available on other Qantas services from the US in the weeks leading up to the event.
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