Catholic scholars are divided over whether Pope Benedict XVI will accept the letter of resignation that Cardinal Egan is required to submit on Monday, his 75th birthday.
Some predict the cardinal would be permitted to stay on, while others expect the pope to accept the resignation.
Canon Law asserts that Catholic bishops, upon turning 75, must offer up their resignation, which the pope can accept or reject.
Pope John Paul II rejected Cardinal O'Connor's resignation in 1995, and the cardinal continued to lead the Archdiocese of New York until his death five years later.
A professor of theology at the University of Notre Dame, the Reverend Richard McBrien, said politics often played into Pope John Paul II's decisions about resignations. Prelates who were "theologically conservative and completely loyal to him" were permitted to continue working, he said.
Pope Benedict XVI has yet to establish a pattern, according to Rev. McBrien. " Cardinal Egan's resignation will be an excellent test case," he said.
Rev. McBrien predicted that Cardinal Egan's resignation would be accepted, noting, "The word has been around for quite some time that he wants to retire, which was not the case with Cardinal O'Connor."
A spokesman for the Archdiocese of New York, Joseph Zwilling, said the cardinal has written "a basic form letter" that will be sent to the Vatican next week.
"It will not state a preference, but the cardinal has joked with priests that he will be around for 150 years," Mr. Zwilling said.
The president of the Catholic League for Religious and Civil Rights, William Donohue, said bishops typically advise the Vatican of their desire to stay on or to retire. "Clearly he has some pull in the Vatican, and his view is likely to be respected," he said. "Essentially the ball is in Cardinal Egan's court."
Mr. Donohue did not dismiss the possibility that the 79-year-old pontiff would see Cardinal Egan's resignation as his only opportunity to effect change in the Archdiocese of New York. "
New York is the cultural center of the country, and it may be that the pope wants someone more vocal in that position — now that Cardinal Egan has tended to the financial concerns," he said.
During his nearly seven-year tenure at the helm, Cardinal Egan has succeeded in erasing the sprawling, 10-county archdiocese's $20 million annual operating deficit — in part by making tough choices to close parishes and schools.
The cardinal's low profile has been a source of criticism from some New York faithful who miss his more gregarious predecessor.
Last fall, a group of archdiocesan priests published an anonymous letter that accused the cardinal of devoting attention to fiscal matters at the expense of the "spiritual needs and concerns" of his flock — and encouraged Pope Benedict XVI to consider accepting his resignation.
The archdiocese next month will begin a year-long bicentennial celebration. The Reverend Richard John Neuhaus, the editor of a religion journal, First Things, surmised that Cardinal Egan would stay on the job for the anniversary festivities, which run through April 2008.
"I would be surprised if his resignation were accepted immediately," Rev. Neuhaus said.
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