The island democracy’s only embassy on European soil looks onto St. Peter’s Basilica from the Via della Conciliazione, making the Vatican one of the most visible places in the world where the flag of the Republic of China (Taiwan) is flown publicly in defiance of the Chinese Communist Party’s view that Taiwan does not exist as a country.
“The Vatican is the only country in Europe that still recognizes Taiwan,” said Taiwanese Deputy Foreign Minister François Chihchung Wu in an interview with the Register. “And we need to maintain this kind of diplomatic relation because it is the source of the legitimacy of our government. So we are continuing to work very hard to work with the Vatican and trying to maintain this diplomatic relation, which is crucial for us.”
That political tension surfaced again in the last days of 2025, as China launched its biggest ever military drill around Taiwan after the U.S. announced an $11-billion arms sale to Taiwan. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, told U.S. President Donald Trump in a phone call on Nov. 24 that “Taiwan’s return to China is an important part of the postwar international order,” according to Chinese state media.
For Beijing, persuading the Holy See to abandon Taiwan would be a geopolitical prize. The specter that the Vatican might sacrifice its long-standing ties with Taipei for full relations with Beijing has surfaced under every 21st-century pontificate, reaching its peak under Pope Francis, who dreamed of becoming the first pope to visit China.
But the election of Pope Leo XIV in May has rekindled fresh hope in Taiwan.
On a recent trip to Taipei, I met President Lai Ching-te and senior officials who described the Vatican’s unique place in Taiwan’s diplomatic outlook. I also saw firsthand how a Catholic missionary presence continues to thrive on the island, with 90 religious congregations active across Taiwan, proclaiming the Gospel in Chinese — a stark contrast to conditions in mainland China, where religious freedom has sharply deteriorated under Xi and minors are barred from entering Catholic churches and other religious sites.
My weeklong reporting trip to Taiwan was made possible by funding from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (ROC). The Holy See Press Office and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) did not respond to request for comment for this article.
For Taiwanese leaders, the Vatican’s recognition is deeply valued. They frequently point to Taiwan’s democratic system and its high global rankings for press and religious freedom, metrics in which Taiwan outpaces the United States.
Taiwan’s foreign minister, Lin Chia-lung, told the Register that he understands why the Holy See might seek connections with Beijing, but insisted “this should not contradict diplomatic ties with Taiwan.” He added, “We really cherish the freedom of religion that we have right now. And I believe that, in this regard, Taiwan can have more cooperation with the Holy See going forward.”
Wu, who traveled to Rome for Pope Leo’s inauguration, spoke candidly about what Taipei hopes the new Pope will recognize. “The formal support of the Vatican to a free Chinese-speaking society is very, very important,” he said.
For Wu, Taiwan represents a model: a Chinese-speaking democracy where Catholicism can flourish unimpeded.
“Taiwan is not part of China,” he said. “We can be a very important model for China. … The existence of Taiwan is very, very important for the future of every Chinese-speaking society, but especially for China.”
Yet the Vatican’s relationship with Taiwan has always been complex. The Holy See first established ties with the Republic of China in 1942, when Chiang Kai-shek’s government was leading resistance against Japan in mainland China in the Second Sino-Japanese War. After the Chinese Civil War, when Chiang’s government retreated to Taiwan in 1949, the Vatican’s apostolic nuncio remained on the mainland until the communist regime expelled him in 1951 for objecting to Beijing’s plan to form a state-controlled Catholic Church in China. Two years later, the Apostolic Nunciature to China was moved to Taiwan.
The shift in global politics in 1971 — when the United Nations transferred China’s seat to Beijing and Taipei was expelled — triggered a Vatican response. Pope Paul VI downgraded the Holy See’s diplomatic representative in Taipei to a chargé d’affaires, a status that endures today. Msgr. Stefano Mazzotti has served in that role since 2022.
Peter Moody, an expert in international relations in East Asia and professor emeritus at the University of Notre Dame, told the Register that Taiwan values its relationship with the Vatican more than the Holy See values its relationship with Taiwan.
For the Holy See, “it’s a leftover of its relationship with China (Republic of China). Beijing broke off relations with the Vatican in the early 1950s, and the only way to maintain a relationship with ‘China’ was to move the nunciature to Taipei,” he said.
This arrangement for the Vatican’s presence in Taiwan feels fragile to many in Taipei, particularly when the Holy See has pursued rapprochement with Beijing. Under Pope Francis, the Vatican entered a controversial 2018 provisional agreement with China on the appointment of bishops, raising fears in Taipei that the Vatican’s deeper ties with Beijing could come at the cost of Taiwan’s last European ally.
“We are very worried that the Vatican could abandon Taiwan,” Wu said.
“Now with the new Pope, we have a new hope.”
Is ‘Double Recognition’ Possible?
Some scholars in Taiwan offer cautious optimism. Thomas Tu, a doctoral researcher in Taipei studying Vatican-Taiwan relations, says the idea of “double recognition,” or the Holy See maintaining ties with both Taiwan and Beijing, is unlikely but not impossible. He puts the chance at “a 10% or even less than 10%” that Rome could one day have a diplomatic presence in both capitals.
“That would be a great example for every country,” he said.
Such an arrangement would defy current diplomatic norms. Because of Beijing’s “One China” policy, no state today holds full ties with both the PRC and the ROC. But Tu argues that the Church’s diplomatic toolbox is unique, suggesting Rome could appoint a “papal delegate” in Beijing while keeping its nunciature in Taipei.
Tu, himself a Taiwanese Catholic, believes the Vatican is unlikely to sever ties with Taiwan.
Since the Lateran Treaty of 1929, he said, the Holy See has relied on international recognition to safeguard its sovereignty. It maintains relations with 180 states, including 80 with embassies accredited to the Vatican, and is reluctant to cut any. Taiwan’s religious freedom, he added, has made the island a strategic hub for translating Vatican materials into Mandarin.
Still, nearly every diplomat I interviewed acknowledged the same obstacle: Beijing would never accept dual recognition.
“I don’t think the Chinese authorities will be willing to make fundamental concessions which … the Holy See is willing to swallow … unless you forget about Catholicism and whatever it represents in total,” said Tien Hung-mao, Taiwan’s former foreign minister.
Moody said that “a more realistic possibility is for the Holy See to move the nunciature to Beijing and appoint some kind of papal delegate to Taipei.”
“Both the Chinese sides would have to accept this,” he added. “And, so far, Beijing doesn’t see any reason to.”
Ambassador Rong-chuan Wu, a senior adviser at the Institute for National Policy Research, was blunt: “From the professional point of view, there’s no possibility for the time being.”
Recognizing Beijing, he warned, would be “a disaster” that could inflict “tremendous damage to the Holy See,” making it appear as though the Vatican had abandoned its principles.
For some diplomats, that scenario has felt alarmingly plausible. Tien recalled that within his first weeks as foreign minister in 2000, he received a report that Vatican officials under Pope John Paul II were considering switching recognition.
“For me at the time, I was scared, right? I don’t want to be the foreign minister who only in 10 days lost the Holy See,” he said. “So do you know what I did? I flew to Rome … I met with the secretary of state of the Holy See. We talked for two hours.”
Looking ahead, Tien sees only one circumstance that might compel the Vatican to switch recognition, a collapse of the Chinese Communist Party. “The real question is: Is the Catholic Church, and the values and humanity it represents, compatible with communism? My answer to that is No,” he said.
Deputy Minister Wu echoed those doubts. While he hopes geopolitical changes might someday make dual recognition possible, he remains realistic. “According to my perspective and all my experience, it would not be possible. It’s not because we don’t want something … it’s because China wants to conquer Taiwan, so they would never accept it, except if they changed their president,” he said.
After a pause, he added, “Today, if you’re looking at all the conditions, looking at all the positions of China, it’s still impossible. But who knows? Maybe with the will of God … just like how the Vatican changed the Cold War with the arrival of a pope in Poland in 1980.”
‘Peace Be With You All’
From his first words on the loggia of St. Peter’s Basilica, Pope Leo XIV signaled that peace would be his diplomatic priority.
One does not have to look far to see headlines about the threat of a potential Chinese military invasion of Taiwan.
Taiwan’s former president Tsai Ing-wen regularly responded to Pope Francis’ annual World Day of Peace message, underscoring Taiwan’s commitment to peace amid Chinese aggression.
At this year’s National Day reception in Rome, held days after The New York Times detailed “The Missiles Threatening Taiwan,” Taiwan’s new ambassador to the Holy See, Anthony Chung-Yi Ho, invoked the words of Pope John Paul II: “Do not be afraid.”
“Taiwan faces constant challenges and threats from across the strait,” Ho said. “We do not yield to fear. Instead, Taiwan rises with courage — standing tall as a beacon of freedom and democracy.”
He added, “We believe that true greatness lies not in power, but in love. Guided by this conviction, Taiwan will continue to walk in unity with the Holy See, building bridges of peace and charity.”
Pope Leo is the first pope to have visited mainland China before his election, but the China he saw in the early 2000s was far less restrictive than China today under Xi Jinping. Still, many in Taiwan hope Leo’s experience will give him clearer instincts on the reality of human rights in China. They also point to the Pope’s first interview, in which he said he intends to listen to “a significant group of Chinese Catholics who for many years have lived some kind of oppression or difficulty in living their faith freely” and is open to dialogue with “a number of people, Chinese, on both sides.”
For now, the Vatican may have the luxury of waiting to see who eventually succeeds the 72-year-old Xi. Taiwan, however, fears it may not have that time.
Leo, who was elected pope amid the wars in Ukraine and the Holy Land, could in the coming years face a new international crisis in the Taiwan Strait.
And if he were to decide to break with precedent and send a dramatic signal of support for Taiwan from Rome, he could choose to travel there, a possibility Taipei has openly encouraged.
Former president Tsai invited Pope Francis to Taiwan multiple times, including ahead of his 2024 trip to the Asia-Pacific.
“If we can have the visit of the Pope to Taiwan … it would send a very strong message … that Catholicism can be practiced without problem in a Chinese-speaking society,” Wu said, “that the Chinese people also have the right, also have the possibility to live in a democratic country, in a free society. They are not condemned only to live under the Chinese communist rule.”