The upcoming Synod of the Russian Orthodox Church is an important test to decipher the hold of the Patriarch's leadership, among recurring rumors about his health and uncertainties about the future of Putin’s power system.
Finally, he spoke. But "too little, too late", like more than a few whisper in Moscow. Patriarch Kirill, influential and usually interventionist leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, waited more than two weeks to say something in his own words on the political convulsions that followed the legislative elections of last December 4.
A few days after an important meeting of the Synod, scheduled for December 27 to 29 - that should further strengthen his power on paper, formalizing the creation of new dioceses to be entrusted to bishops friends -, the strong man of Russian Orthodoxy has calibrated the alert words expressed on the troubled times his country is experiencing, without exasperating the tones and without taking an explicit position with respect to protests against Putin's power.
On 17 and 18 December, for two consecutive evenings, Russian TVs have selected and re-broadcast the passages of two sermons in which Kirill urged his fellow citizens, "heirs of the great Russia, who survived the terrible trials of the 20th century" to "learn from the lessons of the past and avoid repeating the mistakes made "by our ancestors in 1917" and "by those people who, in the Nineties, suddenly changed the lives of our people."
The Patriarch has warned people on media manipulation and subversive impulses that could "destroy the lives of people," but also called for God's protection on a perspective of national convergence in which the parties struggling in the furious post-election climate may "enter a sincere, civil dialogue" without destroying the country's unity.
The authorities were called by the Patriarch to "show more confidence in the people, and facilitate dialogue and communication", necessary elements to prevent conflicts from degenerating into chaos. "The blood shed in the 20th century", insisted Kirill, "does not give us the right to separate."
The unusual elongation of Kirill's reaction time and the tone of cautious alarm showing through his recent moves prove that even the strong-willed head of the powerful Moscow Patriarchate is faced with the difficult task of repositioning, following the instability that shakes the Russian geopolitical space. With the emergence of the anti-Putin dissent front, the Patriarch and his men have so far adhered to a well-established practice in high-ecclesiastical spheres, that is to express considerations that each contestant can read as a public support to its position.
Before the elections, his speech manifested with more clarity the patriarchal endorsement of the Putin-Medvedev axis and concerns about the first cracks in approval around Putin's system. The Patriarch chose solemn words to let everyone know that elections were crucial for the fate of Russia, and that, according to him, the Russian nation "can exist only as a large multi-national state, or otherwise cease to exist." In October, in his wishes for Putin's birthday, he paid tribute to the "integrity" and to the "deep love for the homeland" thanks to which the current prime minister had prevailed on trends "that could push our country towards collapse."
In this neo-imperial perspective, Kirill recalled in mid-November the twentieth anniversary of the USSR's collapse, including among its triggers "the void of self-consciousness and national pride."
Several factors concurred to draw the new "fence-sitting" phase of Kirill's leadership. The Patriarch has to take into account the fact that political polarization is releasing centrifugal forces also within the church community. If the militants of the Association of Russian Orthodox Experts - signature of the neo-identitarian, religion-inspired Russian movement - bless in advance the idea of military repression of protests, some familiar faces from the clergy - such as Archpriest Vladimir Vigiljanskij, director of the Patriarchate's press office, archdeacon Andrey Kuraiev and priest Fëdor Liudogovsky - have expressed interest and appreciation for the "outraged" Russians.
Vigiljanskij also took part to protests against electoral fraud in Bolotnaya Square, while father Liudogovsky wrote a fiery note on "self-righteous-style elections", where the last election cycle is defined as "a rare example of falsehood and hypocrisy".
In this climate, the open chapters within Russian Orthodoxy will reappear at the Synod, scheduled in the coming days. The Bishops' meeting, convened to formalize the creation of 13 new dioceses in the Siberian territories, should strengthen on paper Kirill's position within the increasingly reluctant Orthodox hierarchies, ensuring him the appointment of new bishops of his choice. But the ecclesiastical-political prominence of the head of the Orthodox Church continues to be unwillingly accepted by many of his colleagues in the episcopate.
This hostility amplifies the rumours on the Patriarch's health. Kirill was already hospitalized for ten days between July and August. The medical bulletins had reported an acute viral infection, but according to reconstructions relaunched by Ukraine, it was because of a myocardial infarction, due to the stress of his previous visit in that country.
Also on November 20, the day of his 65th birthday, during a Mass for the arrival in Moscow of the Holy Virgin's belt (the relic preserved at Mount Athos, revered by hundreds of thousands of believers just in a few days), the Patriarch would not feel good, and days later had to cancel his visit to Kyrgyzstan, even though the official statements from the Patriarchate tried to dispel any alarm.
It's a fact that Kirill's tactical and strategic skills are called to cope with new scenarios. After sharing years of approval with Putin, the Patriarch will have to avoid being weakened by a possible tear within Putin's power system. An open game that fatally intersects with the destiny of ecumenism.