A CONFIDENTIAL assessment of the economic impact of World Youth Day concluded the benefits would be low compared with the taxpayer aid sought by the Catholic Church. The analysis, prepared for the State Government three years ago, found pilgrims would inject between $115 million and $183 million into Sydney's economy, but that daily spending by overseas visitors could be as little as $57 because their accommodation, breakfast and transport were already paid for.
The biggest spenders were predicted to be members of the foreign and interstate media, at between $215 and $245 a day.
The evaluation, in March 2005, came before the church's bid for World Youth Day at a time when the Government had publicly committed to spend $20 million on the occasion.
The Government's commitment has since risen to $106 million, including its share of $42 million in compensation to the racing industry for the use of Randwick Racecourse, while the number of expected pilgrims has risen by at least 50,000.
The analysis came to light only last week, after the Greens MP Lee Rhiannon pressed the NSW Treasury and the Premier's Department to release its World Youth Day costings.
The Government yesterday dismissed the document, prepared by the economic evaluation and statistics unit of the Department of State and Regional Development, as "very old" and "based on information known at the time before the World Youth Day bid was made".
A spokesman for the Deputy Premier, John Watkins, said a more recent study estimated the economic impact of the six-day July event at between $152 million and $193 million.
That study, however, has been withheld from public scrutiny despite a Herald freedom-of-information request and a subsequent appeal.
The 2005 report found that World Youth Day presented "unprecedented possibilities for participation and evangelisation of peoples not touched by the WYD phenomenon given the substantial Catholic populations in the Pacific, Philippines, Timor, Korea and India".
"Parish communities and host cities report a renewed involvement of youth in the church and signs of a young and energetic Catholicism emerging as a key legacy of the event," it said. But the estimated economic impacts were "low compared to the government assistance sought".
"Providing assistance to one religious group may raise problematic precedents as other religious and social groups could seek assistance on a similar basis."
The 2005 assessment was based on church predictions that World Youth Day would draw 89,000 foreign and 84,000 interstate visitors, against the 225,000 pilgrims it now expects.
Those 173,000 visitors were expected to inject $115 million to $183 million into the local economy. Further, the State Government would receive $143 million to $260 million from payroll tax generated by extra jobs.
The "direct flow-on value" was assessed at $65 million to $112 million.
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