Monday, March 17, 2025

Vatican expert: Battle for Francis' succession has already begun

In his new book "The Unfinished Man. Francis' legacy and the battle for his succession", Italian journalist and Vatican expert Marco Politi talks about the ordeal the Catholic Church is currently facing. 

In the book, he takes a detailed look at Pope Francis' pontificate and takes a critical look at the mobilisation on the part of the arch-conservative wing. 

In an interview with katholisch.de, Politi explains why the reform-minded were passive and less organised.

Question: Mr Politi, the Pope has been in hospital for several weeks. Various scenarios are already being considered. How do you feel about this?

Politi: The situation is on a knife-edge. It could go one way or the other. There have now been improvements and we have to see whether this will last. But one thing is certain: when Francis returns to the Vatican from hospital, he will govern with a fragile health, because his respiratory system is very fragile. The question will be whether he continues or whether he retires. In any case, Francis still wants to preside over the Jubilee Year and be present at the major celebrations, but at the end of the year he will be 89 years old. A decision will then have to be made.

Question: Cardinal Müller, from the traditional wing of the Church, has said about a possible papal resignation that one does not descend from the cross. How do you judge such a statement?

Politi: That is a very interesting statement, because on the one hand Cardinal Müller wants the traditional form of the pontificate to be preserved, i.e. that one is pope for life, and that Ratzinger was an exception and that I should not naturalise this exception. On the other hand, it also shows that Cardinal Müller, like other ultra-conservative cardinals, is very cautious at the moment: they don't want to show that the election campaign has already begun. This is because the ultra-conservatives know that they are not strong enough to impose a candidate on the conclave. Because it is clear that a compromise must be found with the centre ground. The great centre is a group of cardinals who belong to different schools of thought and view Francis' theological line differently. Sometimes they are open, perhaps in favour of communion for remarried divorcees, but then they are against the blessing of homosexual couples, for example.

Question: In your new book "The Unfinished. Francis' legacy and the battle for his succession", you even speak of a civil war...

Politi: For twelve years, there was a fierce civil war in the Church. The ultra-conservatives were against Francis, precisely because of communion for remarried divorcees. They did not want a diaconate for women and demanded that celibacy remain, they are against the blessing of homosexual couples. But they know that when it comes to the conclave, you can't shout extremist slogans so much, you have to be more careful.

Question: Do the possible candidates include names such as Cardinals Burke, Sarah or Müller?

Politi: These are names that are recognised and these are the combatants, so to speak, in this "civil war". Cardinal Sarah, for example, campaigned to prevent the priesthood in the Amazon region from being opened up to the so-called "viri probati" and published a book on the subject. At the time, he also enlisted the support of Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI. But these campaigners are not the candidates. At the moment, they are hiding their cards until the right moment comes...

Question: In your book, you were critical of the uneven mobilisation. Conservative groups are very well organised, the liberals less so. Why is that the case?

Politi: There has been a weakening of reform-minded bishops and cardinals in recent decades. In the late 60s and 70s, there were always cardinals or bishops who took a strong public position - in Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain or Italy. Then John Paul II and later Ratzinger very much muted criticism and the search for new paths. With Francis, this has changed and new signs have been set.

Question: But?

Politi: There is a vocal and well-organised opposition with many websites actively campaigning against the Pope. The reformist wing of the Church has not been as active on the international stage and has not mobilised. Francis probably did not want such a mobilisation of the reformers to deepen the division in the Church. But if it was a strategy, then it was a bad one. Because the progressives were rather passive.

Question: Why?

Politi: I would like to cite the reform project of the Catholic Church in Germany - the Synodal Way - as an example of the passivity of the reformers. With the discussion that was initiated there, the Church in Germany was, so to speak, at the forefront of the international reform movement. But we have heard so few voices from other bishops' conferences saying, for example, that they agree or disagree with everything, but it is good that the many issues are being discussed. It is good that people in Germany are looking for solutions. Instead, there was silence - and you could see that the conservative forces became better organised again at certain moments.

Question: Also internationally, if you look at a possible conclave, for example with a website about the cardinals...

Politi: This is a very clever move by the - let's say - "moderate conservatives", precisely to somehow influence the election. We can see here that the reform forces have no initiatives. But I can also understand that they don't want to name names because that would ruin their chances in the election. But at least these forces could have contributed to the debate by saying what the important issues are for the church of the 21st century or by taking them up again so that a candidature or at least the profile of a candidature would result from this. This clearly includes the question of the role of women in the church.

Question: You also speak of a lack of engagement with Europe, because Francis has mainly focussed on the periphery of the universal Church. The European core countries were given less consideration. Instead, there were repeated stop signs, especially with regard to the synodal path in Germany. Should the Pope have paid more attention to this?

Politi: The "old countries of Catholicism" in particular, the heart of European Catholicism, have received almost no attention. In this respect, the pontificate is - as the title of the book suggests - unfinished. But it is understandable that Francis wanted to go to the margins of the universal church at the beginning. That was also very positive and attracted a lot of attention. But Catholics in France, Germany, Austria, England and Spain are also on the margins today. The crisis of the church, of faith and of church structures is particularly severe in Europe. There is a growing shortage of priests, fewer and fewer young people are entering the seminary, and there is also a shortage of women religious. There is also a lack of believers, which is why Francis should have visited these countries. This has led to irritation, even among those who share Francis' theological line.

Question: The shortage of priests and the role of women are important issues in these countries. But Francis is also taking steps, such as the recent appointment of a woman as head of government in the Vatican City State. Is he only opening a small crack in the door and leaving the rest of the reforms to his successor?

Politi: Firstly, this shows that the popes and also the Roman Curia are no longer omnipotent in the 21st century. The Curia wanted to stop the German synodal path with the support of the Pope, but the German bishops simply went ahead. Or another example: the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith says that homosexual couples can be blessed, and the African churches are against it. This shows that this omnipotence no longer exists. And the second point is that the Pope is no longer an omnipotent monarch either. This was the case from the Tridentine Council until after the Second Vatican Council. Let's just take John Paul II, who still acted very authoritatively in some cases. But this omnipotence is over, and the Pope today, whether Francis or someone else, must take account of the different cultures and social conditions. The South American bishops and priests think differently to the Western European ones, the Eastern European ones differently again, not to mention the clergy in Asia.

Question: How should we proceed?

Politi: A pope has to have a majority behind him, and on the issue of women, Francis just didn't have that majority behind him. He did open the discussion on the diaconate for women, but the commissions were divided. The second commission failed and now another is to work in the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith and deliver its first results on 15 June this year. Many believe that, given the Pope's illness and the situation after his release from hospital, there will be no major news. But as a political leader, Pope Francis is trying to bring women into leadership positions in the Curia. This is certainly news that should not be underestimated.

Question: Is that enough?

Politi: It is clear that women in the northern hemisphere are very angry about the lack of reform. But the Pope's decision to involve lay people and women in the World Synod and to give them voting rights is a revolution. It is the first time in 1,700 years that women have taken part in a synod of bishops. There is no turning back.