Big manoeuvres are expected in the election of the
next successor to the Seat of Peter. Cardinals, including the over 80s among them (Sodano and Ruini), have kick started the pre-Conclave pow wows.
Many Italians are betting on Scola being elected as he would strengthen the front and prevent a split, like the one which occurred between Benelli and Siri in 1978, paving the way for outsider Wojtyla’s rise to the Seat of Peter.
The focus will also be on U.S. cardinals as they were the first to deal with the paedophilia scandal, they are at the forefront of issues that are key for the Catholic Church in today’s secularised society (the constant friction between U.S. bishops and the Obama administration over issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion demonstrated this), and more prosaically, they are the biggest contributors to the Holy See’s coffers.
The Church does not appear to be ready for an African or Asian. Africa and Asia are scarcely represented in the Conclave.
Whoever is elected as the next leader of the Catholic Church will have to add Ratzinger’s “purification” programme to their agenda. The profile of the new Pope remains hazy.
In his last homily before leaving for Rome, the Archbishop of Washington, Donald William Wuerl, who figures in the list of those considered likely to be elected Pope (the papabili) expressed enthusiasm but also apprehension at the prospect of electing Benedict XVI’s successor.
The new Pope will have to have the energy and presence needed in order to tackle the big challenges the Church faces.
Argentinean media consider Leonardo Sandri and Jorge Bergoglio, (the two Argentinean cardinals who are taking part in the Conclave) to be potential papabili; the first because of the influence he has in the Curia and the second because of his international prestige which led him to become the most voted cardinal in the 2005 Conclave.
Cardinal Angelo Scola is also seen as a strong candidate. He shares a common background with Ratzinger as founder of Catholic journal Communio, he has impressive leadership skills which he demonstrated during his time as Patriarch of Venice and has an international outlook given his position as director of Oasis journal and his frequent travels abroad.
Although he has gradually distanced himself from Roman Catholic movement Communion and Liberation (in the 70’s he also had a tiff with the movement’s founder, Fr. Giusani), his background remains rooted in the movement. Crucially, however, he may not manage to gather all the Italian votes necessary to take office.
There are 28 Italian cardinals making them the largest group in the Curia. It also seems highly unlikely that Bertone’s supporters will vote for Scola.
The Vatican spokesman, Fr. Federico Lombardi has said that the Conclave start date will be set by the cardinals themselves, during the General Congregation meetings.
There are, however, very few certainties regarding the Conclave that will elect Benedict XVI’s successor.
One thing is for sure though: unlike Joseph Ratzinger in 2005, this time there is no clear favourite. Benedict XVI’s shock resignation means surprises, dramatic turns of events and unexpected alliances could all be on the cards.
This situation is a reflection of Benedict XVI as a figure: As a man of the Church he is tied to tradition and yet was clearly capable of a revolutionary act. He is an integral part of the Wojtyla establishment and yet he is a stranger to power play. He is leader of the Roman Curia and yet the announcement of his resignation was one historic slap in the face to the Holy See’s governing body.
If the law of pendulum can be applied to this Conclave, given that the outgoing Pope is elderly and a member of the Curia at the time of his election, this time round, cardinal electors could go for a younger and possibly foreign cardinal.
In informal meetings, cardinals have mentioned the possibility of playing the Pope-Secretary of State card, that is, nominating both.
This is because in the absence of a clear favourite, cardinals are aware that scandals such as Vatileaks have lessened their chances of being able to nominate a Pope directly.
At the same time, however, those cardinals who are not members of the Curia do not have the power to impose a candidate and so must accept a compromise: a Roman Secretariat of State.
Non- One possible combination offered by Curia outsider cardinals is U.S. Capuchin monk O’Malley (who has led the battle against paedophilia in Boston) as Pope and Angelo Becciu (current Substitute for General Affairs and former nuncio to Cuba) as Secretary of State. O’Malley taught Hispanic literature in Washington and shares Becciu’s support for Cuba’s silent Church.
Alternatively, thinking of a possible Italian-Curia member combo, cardinals could go for a Pope from an Italian diocese (Scola), nominating a Sodano supporter (Sandri, who is Vatican “minister” for Eastern Churches) as Secretary of State.
Failing these two options, cardinals may choose mediation candidates such as Bagnasco, Scherer (who is a member of the Vatican Bank commission and therefore familiar with the Curia and well-liked by “Romans” such as Bertone) or Canadian Ouellet who is Prefect of the Congregation for Bishops and is a favourite both among Curia members and the U.S. cardinals.
What cardinals will seek to avoid is to select a duo of non-diplomats. This time, at least one of the Catholic Church’s two top leaders will have to come from the diplomatic service.
“Casaroli, Wojtyla’s first Secretary of State was the instigator of Ostpolitik and Ratzinger’s was canonist Bertone,” the Holy See points out.