A drawn-out Conclave that ends up exposing
divisions within the Curia. This is what circles close to the Curia are
worried could happen with the papal election process. Meanwhile, cardinals have already started contacting each other to try to reach as quick and as unanimous a solution as possible.
Those closest to Joseph Ratzinger claim they were not very surprised by his resignation. He had spoken about it openly, people were aware he was considering it and some even say he had wanted to resign a year ago when he turned 85.
But the time was not right given the internal scandals that had been plaguing the Curia, Nuncio Viganò’s transferral to Washington, the papal document leak, not to mention the continuous embarrassment caused by the sad events surrounding the clerical sex-abuse scandal.
All these factors had made it impossible for the Pope to resign immediately because it would have looked as though he was trying to escape in the face of difficulty. But all he had done was postpone it.
Those who were close to Benedict XVI knew it was only a matter of time before he decided to step down and they therefore had to prepare for that moment.
The announcement made on 11 February was the end of the road and despite the great shock it caused, it gave the Vatican the chance to think things over and to manage the succession process better. The end did not come suddenly.
When they come to Rome for the Conclave, even the cardinals that were less informed about Ratzinger’s intentions will have had several weeks to reflect on the situation, contact their colleagues and get an idea of how his successor’s election could go.
This, however, puts the pressure on for a quick solution to be found, particularly given the media landscape, where global communication never sleeps thanks to newspapers, television, internet and cell phones which are constantly collecting and transmitting all kinds of information.
If after a day or so of voting we still see black smoke coming from the Sistine Chapel, the sense of a rift and a deep crisis within the Church will quickly spread across the world.
Circles close to the Curia though fear precisely this. Sources say the traditional rivalries between Curia cardinals and the various currents that have always existed are not the only the reason for this.
It is the state the Church is in that could cause the Conclave to drag on because of the difficulty of finding a candidate who has all the qualities necessary to overcome the crisis.
John Paul II was certainly a great communicator while Benedict XVI’s depth of intellect is certainly unusual. The new Pope will have to join all these abilities together and exalt them if he is to succeed in the difficult task that awaits him.
Indeed, observers note that just by looking at the Curia the Church is more divided than it looks. There is internal division between faithful and the hierarchies; between conservative groups that keep looking back at a past that cannot be repeated and more liberal groups who have gone too far in their attempt to find common ground with others.
Whoever looks at the next Conclave with honesty and intelligence will know that the toughest challenge the next Pope is going to face is this. The challenge will not just be reforming the Curia, making it more modern and more efficient, or dealing with the sex-abuse scandal and resolving the serious problem of its image.
The biggest challenge is going to be healing the divisions within the Church with a common message that is able to guide the institution back onto the path of its original mission, a message that can be communicated to the whole world in a convincing manner.
All this requires reflection and could cause the Conclave to drag on. Vetos presented by the very first candidates, both Italian and foreign risk clashing because the two thirds majority election rule reinforced by Benedict XVI facilitates obstructionism.
The debate could go on for a while then, with potentially unexpected results that cannot be foreseen right now, as in Karol Wojtyla’s case.
This could all turn out to the Church’s advantage if cardinals are pushed to consider their positions better and find more suitable solutions to problems that need to be resolved. What is going to be more tricky, however, is to teach today’s world to be patient, since the first smoke signals could be misinterpreted, driving it further way from the Church.