For the first time in its history, the United States does not have a
Protestant majority, according to a new study.
One reason: The number of
Americans with no religious affiliation is on the rise.
The
percentage of Protestant adults in the U.S. has reached a low of 48
percent, the first time that Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life has
reported with certainty that the number has fallen below 50 percent.
The drop has long been anticipated and comes at a time when no
Protestants are on the U.S. Supreme Court and the Republicans have their
first presidential ticket with no Protestant nominees.
Among the
reasons for the change a spike in the number of American adults who say
they have no religion. The Pew study, released Tuesday, found that about
20 percent of Americans say they have no religious affiliation, an
increase from 15 percent in the last five years.
Scholars have
long debated whether people who say they no longer belong to a religious
group should be considered secular. While the category as defined by
Pew researchers includes atheists, it also encompasses majorities of
people who say they believe in God, and a notable minority who pray
daily or consider themselves "spiritual" but not "religious."
Still, Pew
found overall that most of the unaffiliated aren't actively seeking
another religious home, indicating that their ties with organized
religion are permanently broken.
Growth among those with no
religion has been a major preoccupation of American faith leaders who
worry that the United States, a highly religious country, would go the
way of Western Europe, where church attendance has plummeted.
Pope
Benedict XVI has partly dedicated his pontificate to combating
secularism in the West.
This week in Rome, he is convening a three-week
synod, or assembly, of bishops from around the world aimed at bringing
back Roman Catholics who have left the church.
The trend also has
political implications. American voters who describe themselves as
having no religion vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. Pew found
Americans with no religion support abortion rights and gay marriage at a
much higher-rate than the U.S. public at large.
These "nones" are an
increasing segment of voters who are registered as Democrats or lean
toward the party, growing from 17 percent to 24 percent over the last
five years. The religiously unaffiliated are becoming as important a
constituency to Democrats as evangelicals are to Republicans, Pew said.
The
Pew analysis, conducted with PBS' "Religion & Ethics Newsweekly,"
is based on several surveys, including a poll of nearly 3,000 adults
conducted June 28-July 9, 2012.
The finding on the Protestant majority
is based on responses from a larger group of more than 17,000 people and
has a margin of error of plus or minus 0.9 percentage points, Pew
researchers said.
Pew said it had also previously calculated a
drop slightly below 50 percent among U.S. Protestants, but those
findings had fallen within the margin of error; the General Social
Survey, which is conducted by the University of Chicago's National
Opinion Research Center, reported for 2010 that the percentage of U.S.
Protestants was around 46.7 percent.
Analysts disagree on whether the
increasing numbers of nondenominational Christians should be counted as
Protestant. Pew researchers do include independent Christians in their
Protestant figure.
Researchers have been struggling for decades to
find a definitive reason for the steady rise in those with no
religion.' The spread of secularism in Western Europe was often viewed
as a byproduct of growing wealth in the region. Yet among industrialized
nations, the United States stood out for its deep religiosity in the
face of increasing wealth.
Now, religion scholars say the
decreased religiosity in the United States could reflect a change in how
Americans describe their religious lives. In 2007, 60 percent of people
who said they seldom or never attend religious services still
identified themselves as part of a particular religious tradition. In
2012, that statistic fell to 50 percent, according to the Pew report.
"Part
of what's going on here is that the stigma associated with not being
part of any religious community has declined," said John Green, a
specialist in religion and politics at the University of Akron, who
advised Pew on the survey. "In some parts of the country, there is still
a stigma. But overall, it's not the way it used to be."
The Pew
study has found the growth in unaffiliated Americans spans a broad range
of groups: men and women, college graduates and those without a college
degree, people earning less than $30,000 annually and those earning
$75,000 or more. However, along ethnic lines, the largest jump in
"nones" has been among whites. One-fifth of whites describe themselves
as having no religion.
More growth in "nones" is expected.
One-third of adults under age 30 have no religious affiliation, compared
to 9 percent of people 65 and older.
Pew researchers wrote that "young
adults today are much more likely to be unaffiliated than previous
generations were at a similar stage in their lives," and aren't expected
to become more religiously active as they age.