Secretary of State Bertone would like a consistory in February, but others who work with the Pope suggest waiting, so more red hats can be handed out to residential bishops.
With Cardinal Nicholas Cheong Jinsuk, Archbishop of Seoul and apostolic administrator of P'yong-yang (South Korea) having reached his 80th birthday on 7 December, the number of cardinals with the right to enter into a conclave has dropped to 110. That is ten less than the maximum number of 120 established by Paul VI.
In the second part of his pontificate, John Paul II “breached” the limit in some cases, while Benedict XVI has appeared more careful not to exceed it.
When will the consistory for the creation of new cardinals be held? Until about a month ago, February 2012 seemed to be the date, around the time of the Feast of the Chair of St. Peter (not on the day itself, since this year it falls on Ash Wednesday and so coincides with the start of Lent). Some who work with the Pope, however, believe it would be preferable to wait until June (for the Feasts of Saint Peter and Paul) or even November (Feast of Christ the King, and date for two of three of Pope Ratzinger's consistories, in 2007 and 2010).
The Vatican's Secretary of State, Tarcisio Bertone, is pushing for the appointment of the new batch of cardinals in February, and is keen on a "mini-consistory" being held the month before. But some important Vatican representatives emphasize that waiting until June or November would increase the number of available positions and reduce disproportionate representation of Roman Curials and especially of Italians.
If the consistory is held in February, there would be 12 positions available for new papal electors, since Jose Saraiva Martins and Joseph Zen Ze-Kiun will have reached the age of 80 in January, losing the right to join the conclave of cardinals. If the consistory is held in June, the positions would increase to 16 (between March and June, Cardinals Rodolfo Quezada Toruño, Edward Michael Egan, Miroslav Vlk, and Henri Schwery will have reached 80 years of age).
If held at the end of November, there will be 22 possible new elector-cardinals (between June and November 2012, James Francis Stafford, Gaudencio Borbon Rosales, Cormac Murphy-O'Connor, Pedro Rubiano Sáenz Francis Arinze, and Renato Raffaele Martino will lose the right to join the conclave).
The list of eligible candidates in the Roman Curia and its surroundings is already very long and very Italian. It includes many who occupy positions as Cardinals and are in line to receive the hat of the Prefect of Propaganda Fide, Fernando Filoni: APSA (Heritage Administration of the Holy See) President Domenico Calcagno, President of the Governorship Giuseppe Bertello, and President of the Prefecture of Economic Affairs for the Holy See Giuseppe Versaldi.
Through an unintentional coincidence, three of the four Italians who were recently appointed (and considered very close to Cardinal Bertone ) hold positions as Cardinals according to the regulations of the Curia, but possess strictly administrative or accounting skills.
The non-Italians are the Prefect of the Congregation for Religious, the Brazilian Joao Braz de Aviz; the new Grand Master of the Knights of the Holy Sepulcher, the American Edwin Frederick O'Brien; the new Dean of the Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore, the Spanish Santos Abril y Castelló. There is also the possible and likely appointment of the new Major Penitentiary, replacing Cardinal Fortunato Baldelli (appearing in pole position is the current Secretary of the Congregation of Bishops, Manuel Monteiro de Castro from Portugal).
There are seven eligible Curia members, four of whom are Italians. The number would rise to eight if the new Penitentiary were to be added to the list, and possibly to nine if the Pope included among the new cardinals one of the Presidents of the Pontifical Councils (in the November 2010 consistory there was Gianfranco Ravasi; this time it could be Rino Fisichella, given the conjunction with the Synod for New Evangelization and the Year of Faith, or Francesco Coccopalmerio, President of the Council for the Legislative Texts, who is also a possible candidate for the position of Penitentiary). But the already high number of Curia members, makes it rather unlikely that it will go beyond the decreed seven.
And how will the red hats be distributed among the traditional residential seats of the cardinals? In February there are only supposed to be five positions and many more candidates. Here, then, an unwritten rule, applied in exceptional cases, would be strictly invoked for the second time. It would impose a wait on archbishops who have a still-voting cardinal emeritus predecessor; that is, retired but under eighty years of age. In 2010 this unwritten rule was also applied to those who had voting emeritus predecessors who were transferred to the Roman Curia, as with Archbishop of Florence Giuseppe Betori, whose predecessor Cardinal Ennio Antonelli was called to the Vatican to head the Pontifical Council for the Family.
This was also the case for the Archbishop of Toledo Braulio Rodríguez Plaza, whose predecessor, Cardinal Antonio Cañizares Llovera, was called by the Pope to head the Congregation for Divine Worship. And if it were to be invoked again, both Betori and Rodríguez Plaza would be excluded, as well as Archbishop of Turin Cesare Nosiglia, whose predecessor, Severino Poletto, is not yet 80.
The possible appointment of the new Patriarch of Venice is an enigma. It could take place at the beginning of the year as his predecessor, Angelo Scola, is Archbishop of Milan, and has therefore been relocated.
But strictly speaking, Antonelli and Cañizares were also "moved to another location" from Florence and Toledo, inasmuch as they were called to the Curia. The only residential archbishop who could definitely receive the red hat, even if the rules are strictly applied, is the Archbishop of Utrecht (Netherlands) Willem Jacobus Eijk, insofar as his predecessor, Adrianus Johannes Simonis left the group of electors of the Pope last 26 November.
Strict application of the rules would then exclude the holders of prominent positions in Latin America (the Archbishops of Rio de Janeiro, Santiago of Chile, Bogotà), as well as the United States Dioceses of New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles, and the Canadian Diocese of Québec. In Europe, Brussels, the already-mentioned Toledo, and two if not three Italian dioceses would be excluded. In Asia, if the consistory takes place in February, the new Archbishop of Manila, Luis Antonio Tagle, would also be excluded for a few months.
"The Pope is well aware of the situation," explains one of his colleagues to Vatican Insider, making it clear that no final decision has been made and so some surprises may be in store.
A postponement to June or November 2012 would likely result in a consistory with more of a balance between granting red hats to residential archbishops and curials, or the no longer automatic application of the “certain” hat for those holding the position of Cardinal in the Curia.