Africa is one of Catholicism’s growth areas and the name of
Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana had been mentioned increasingly in the
face of Pope Benedict’s growing frailty.
Speculation has also centred on Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria, though his age, 80, would count against him.
Vatican officials say the pope had no specific illness, but doctors advised, after his last trip abroad, to Cuba, that he should end long trips abroad.
The pope’s decision is the first papal resignation in 600 years and it surprised governments round the world, Vatican correspondents and even close aides.
But the pope’s brother, George Ratzinger, a retired Catholic priest, said Benedict had been considering stepping down for months.
The next pope will be chosen by a meeting of the Church’s 117 cardinals, known as a conclave, to be held in the Sistine chapel.
Meanwhile, Cardinal Turkson says the world may be ready for an African pope.
“Let God’s will be done,” he told the Rome daily Il Messaggero in an interview.
“The Church has followers everywhere,” said the 64-year-old prelate who heads the Vatican’s justice and peace department.
“Africa certainly is an important continent for Catholicism, but so is Asia for example,” he added. “The Church is synonymous with universality... God’s will should be done.”
Turkson is considered progressive by supporters, but some say his decision to show a recent meeting of bishops a video criticising Muslims has damaged his chances.
Other Africans tipped are Laurent Monsengwo Pasinya of the Democratic Republic of Congo, the 74-year-old Archbishop of Kinshasa, and Nigerian John Onaiyekan, 69, the Abuja archbishop.
Cardinal Francis Arinze, also from Nigeria, was considered a possibility when Benedict was elected, but he is now 80 and out of the running.
Benedict took office at a difficult time, as the sexual abuse of children by priests was being widely exposed in America, Ireland and some countries in continental Europe.
He met several times with victims of abuse, apologising personally to them, and he moved to take action against abusers who had been sheltered for years by bishops and the institutional church.
But Benedict did not seem to have the energy to crack down on other areas of dispute such as maladministration in the Curia, the office that runs the Church in Rome, and the overweening influence of some of its priestly officials.
The new pope will face problems as difficult as those encountered by Benedict.
The gulf between traditionalists and liberals looks wider than ever, divided as they are by a series of knotty problems which were never solved during Benedict’s pontificate, including the ban on contraception, calls for women priests and married priests, the Vatican control of appointment of bishops, the question of gay marriages, measures to alleviate the shortage of priests, the heavy hand of discipline against priests who speak against orthodoxy.
Increasingly, Latin America, Asia and Africa are areas which
will demand a greater say in Church affairs. Seminaries in Africa are
bulging and, reversing the traditional missionary movement, black
priests are now evangelising in white Europe.
Latin America is traditionally Catholic territory, although fundamentalist churches are challenging the established order.
In the Far East and China numbers of Catholics are growing apace.
Most of these areas are theologically conservative, especially on issues such as gays and women priests, implying future clashes as third world influence grows.
Vatican correspondents are feverishly filing stories on the “runners and riders” to be next pope and in Britain, bookmakers will be offering odds.
Canon Law states that any baptised male can be elected pope but since the 14th century, the position has been filled by a prince of the Church, a cardinal.
For years, Italians held the post but now that a Pole and a German have been elected, the race is open. A two-thirds-plus-one majority is required and it is likely the successful candidate will be a compromise.
About half of the electors are European but a sixth are Latin American. Age is an important factor.
Benedict was 79 when elected, seen today as too late an age.
The fortunes of the front-runners will wax and wane as the election approaches.
But most insiders today name the following possibles: Angelo Scola, 71, Italy, a conservative sometimes known as the Crown Prince of Catholicism; Marc Ouellet, 68, Canada, 68, traditionalist, close to the pope; Christophe Schoenborn, 67, Germany, conservative but has suggested it is time to re-examine celibacy for priests; Peter Turkson, 54, Ghana, born to a Methodist mother and a Catholic father, considered the social conscience of the church, a theological moderate; Luis Tagle, 55, Philippines, a man of the people, once, when bishop, rode a bicycle to a rundown area and invited beggars to eat with him.
Experts are cautious.
There is a saying, “He who goes into the conclave a pope, comes out a cardinal.”
There is a saying, “He who goes into the conclave a pope, comes out a cardinal.”