With Pope Benedict XVI's visit a smashing success, and celebrations for the 200th anniversary of the Archdiocese of New York winding down, Catholic observers are speculating on the timing of Cardinal Edward Egan's departure and who his successor might be. The cardinal submitted his resignation a year ago when he reached the mandatory retirement age of 75, but no one expected he would leave before the bicentennial.
With the announcement last fall that the pope would make his first visit to the city as pontiff, it wouldn't have made sense for Pope Benedict to have accepted the cardinal's resignation before the historic occasion.
Now that the visit is over, the cardinal says he's still happy where he is.
"The cardinal is very content to be the archbishop of New York and will happily continue in that role for as long as the Holy Father wishes him to do so," said Joseph Zwilling, director of communications for the archdiocese.
Nonetheless, speculation is rampant and the short list of contenders is none too short. It includes Archbishop Harry Mansell of Hartford, Archbishop Timothy Dolan of Milwaukee, Archbishop Wilton Gregory of Atlanta, Archbishop John Myers of Newark, Archbishop William Levada, prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, and Archbishop Roberto Gonzalez Nieves of San Juan.
Also mentioned as possibilities are two insiders, Bishop Gerald Walsh, rector of St. Joseph's Seminary in Yonkers, and Bishop Dennis Sullivan, vicar general for the archdiocese.
"When you talk to the priests, they say they want someone who knows their names," said an archdiocesan source. "By far, they want one of their own. It's been a long time since we had a Terence Cooke." Cardinal Cooke, who served the archdiocese from 1968 to 1983, was a native of the Bronx.
The home-court advantage then would go to Bishop Walsh, Bishop Sullivan or Archbishop Mansell.
Archbishop Mansell is a New York City native who was an auxiliary bishop in New York before being named to lead the Archdiocese of Buffalo in 1995, and has been in Hartford since 2003.
He was widely expected to be named archbishop of New York following Cardinal John J. O'Connor's death in 2000.
But now he's 70, as is Archbishop Levada, and some see that as a drawback, as they would have to submit their resignations in five years.
On the other hand, Archbishop Dolan, at 58, also might have age going against him; he might be too young.
"If we have Timothy Dolan, we could have him 17 years, and this archdiocese is half-Latino or at least moving toward it," the source said.
That would argue for a Latino candidate, like Archbishop Gonzalez Nieves, or an older one with a shorter tenure, followed by a Latino successor.
Another source, an Island resident who describes himself as a long-time observer of the Catholic scene, is putting his money on Archbishop Myers of Newark because he would have "a short learning curve."
"They really do have to have people who are well thought of in the church," the observer said. "He's very orthodox, he did well with seminary enrollments and he could get to work very quickly." Just by his proximity to New York, "he knows some of the issues and problems."
The observer believes that if Archbishop Myers comes to New York, Bishop Nicholas DiMarzio of the Brooklyn Diocese would be sent to Newark.
"There's a kind of symmetry to the whole thing," he said, noting that Bishop DiMarzio was in south Jersey before going to Brooklyn. Others speculate that Bishop DiMarzio could cross the East River and move into the cardinal's residence.
Bishop Gregory is the former president of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops who "came up with the zero tolerance" policy for priests who have molested children. His appointment, seen as something of a longshot, would be historic: He would be the first African-American to lead the Archdiocese of New York.
Island priests are wary of speculating on who their new boss might be, but one parish pastor, guaranteed anonymity, had this to say:
"Bishop Walsh. If I was asked to vote, which I'm not going to be, that would be a name I'd like to see."
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