WORLD YOUTH DAY organisers are praying for a late rush of 100,000 Catholic pilgrims within the next four weeks as new figures cast fresh doubts over their ability to meet targets of 225,000 visitors to the six-day gathering. And the State Government is ready to adjust its budget costs and planning if numbers for the event, billed as the largest religious gathering in Australia's history, fall well short of expectations.
Department of Immigration and Citizenship figures show that with 75 days to go, 21,576 visas had been issued, double the number of a month earlier but still much lower than expectations. A further 4000 applications were being processed.
At least 70 per cent of 125,000 overseas pilgrims had been expected to apply for free visas. A further 6000 visiting New Zealand pilgrims do not need visas.
Harvest Youth Tours, the official tour operator, reports 48,000 confirmed bookings.
The Catholic Church claimed last night 123,000 domestic and overseas pilgrims were "committed" to coming to Sydney.
These include 30,000 from Australia and 93,000 from more than 170 other nations - 37,000 of whom are connected to Catholic lay movements and national church bodies.
The church is still waiting on a further 100,000 pilgrims to complete registration, a process which requires selection and payment of a designated pilgrim's package by early June.
The chief operating officer, Danny Casey, attributed the shortfall to a reluctance of youth to commit to big events until the last minute, and pointed to the last three World Youth Days when half of the pilgrims only decided to attend in the final three months. The church would not close the door to late applicants.
"At this stage there is every indication that we are on track," Mr Casey said. "We're aware that over 30,000 international pilgrims have started the application process for visas."
A much lower than expected turnout has major ramifications for the Catholic Church's $150 million budget to stage the event since pilgrims' registration fees are expected to cover half the event's costs.
It would be likely to trigger a review of public transport needs. More than 400 schools have been booked to house up to 30,000 pilgrims.
When asked last month if World Youth Day preparations would be scaled back if demand fell, the Deputy Premier, John Watkins, said the Government was obliged to plan for the largest possible numbers.
But Mr Casey said the church had been planning for 175,000 to 250,000 visitors to minimise its financial exposure.
But there are signs that World Youth Day will be no tourism bonanza. Matthew Hingerty, managing director of the Australian Tourism Export Council, said the Catholic Church was coming to terms with the reality of Australian tourism, "that many people want to visit here but intention doesn't always translate into bookings". "Having said that, the expectations were never high it was going to be a big windfall for NSW tourism. There is nothing more perishable than a hotel room or an empty airline seat. If a room isn't sold by midnight it can't be put in cold storage to be used another day."
CountryLink has confirmed that an undisclosed number of seats reserved in August 2007 had been released for public purchase after Harvest Youth Tours made adjustments to its expected numbers.
The three-star Sydney Central YHA has booked up to 110 beds daily for pilgrims. The Shangri-La Hotel at the Rocks originally had 400 rooms block-booked for visiting cardinals and bishops but World Youth Day organisers recently cut that back to 150 rooms. Now the hotel has been told only 20 rooms will be needed.
The area general manager for Shangri-La Hotels, Michael Cottan, said World Youth Day was not attracting the business expected and the message needed to get out that the city was open for business during the six-day event.
"I don't foresee any more bookings which is a disaster from our point of view … no one is travelling because they are supposing that the city will be difficult to get around and roads will be closed. Normally, we are tracking corporate meetings but with flights a challenge and people being urged to stay away there are no leads coming through.
"World Youth Day is obviously a positive event highlighting Sydney to the world but there was our experience of APEC last year when we didn't quite make what we thought."
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