The Polish economy has experienced an economic boom over the last year. However, this dizzying growth has not engendered the kind of shift in political climate that would challenge Poland's dominant conservative Catholic ideology.Abortion will not be legalized, religion will remain a graded subject in schools and on high school exit exams, and couples having trouble conceiving will not receive government reimbursement for in vitro fertilization treatment. And this is how it will remain for the next two years.
Tusk is no Zapatero
Just after the autumn elections in Poland, Europe eagerly compared the new Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Zapatero. It was even anticipated that Tusk and his team from the Civic Platform (PO) party, just like the socialists in Spain, would openly stand up to clericalism and bring about modernizing political changes. Now, after two months of the new government, it is clear that Tusk has decided against conflict with the Church, which very resolutely defends its vision of the world in public life.
Still, the weakening social influence of the Roman Catholic Church in Poland is more and more evident. The trend is so clear, in fact, that it could have significance in the presidential election to be held in two years' time, and in which Tusk will likely be one of the favorites.
Therefore the Prime Minister, responding to awkward questions linked to ethical and sexual issues, has recently performed a complicated intellectual juggling act: "[Government reimbursements for] in vitro [fertilization] will not be available this year," he said. "The law on unborn life is good, but discussion of it is possible," he continued. "Religion should stay in high school exit examinations, although that issue provokes profound reflection," he added.
In this way Tusk tried to satisfy the conservative electorate, which "broke with" the Kaczyński brothers' Law and Justice (PiS) party during the last election. On the other hand, such carefully crafted responses allow him to maintain his support among socially liberal circles.
Gone with the Wind?
Such a philosophy is deceptively similar to Scarlett O'Hara's way of reasoning - if there's a problem, let's think about it ... tomorrow. Indeed, what is the sense in striving for clear-cut solutions now if the political winds could soon shift 180 degrees?
History teaches that in the case of the Roman Catholic Church, such an attitude is justified. In many instances, as a result of irrevocable social change resulting from economic development, the Church's policy has been forced to court modern values. In the 1930s, for example, the Church had to accept the liberal economic model and give up its ideological support for social solidarity and corporatism after a century of struggle.
Like then, Poland is currently undergoing dynamic economic development. The economy will rush ahead and the mindset of Polish society, hitherto very traditional, will change along with it.
The sin of neglect?
During the next few years the Roman Catholic Church in Poland will face one of its greatest challenges. Even now, it is increasingly evident that Poles, some 90 percent of whom declare themselves to be Roman Catholics, are rejecting major elements of religious dogma.
Recent public opinion polls have shown that more than 70 percent of those questioned - and more than half of the Roman Catholics questioned - admitted to using contraception. More and more couples get divorced, more and more children are born outside of wedlock.
In the coming years, Polish society's conservative ideology will continue to evolve in the direction of everyday rationalism. The Church will be left with two options - either adapt to the new reality or become a mouldy relic.
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