The publication of the John Jay Institute report
into the US Catholic church's child abuse crisis marks probably the
last word in scholarly and scientific investigation of the story.
Among
its many conclusions, one is so obvious that it has hardly been
discussed at all: there will be no further large scale scandals in the
US. American Catholic clergy are now vanishingly unlikely to abuse
children sexually.
The same seems true in England and Wales.
The crime
will never entirely be stamped out but it's difficult to imagine it
diminishing further.
The report shows a clear and steady decline
in the incidence of reported abuse from about 1980 onwards.
We now know
of almost 800 allegations for 1980.
In 2008 there were 17. It attributes
this fall to a mixture of greater awareness of the crime, within and
outside the church, along with much better training of candidates for
the priesthood (who also tend to be older and more mature than once they
were).
So: are the facts right?
Is the explanation the right one?
Might
the bad old days return?