CLOSE your eyes and try to picture St Peter's Square in Rome a few years hence.The crowds have gathered.
The TV crews on elevated platforms have their cameras trained on the chimney of the Sistine Chapel, from which has emerged billows of white smoke - and in the distance bells toll to herald a new Pope.
A few minutes later, on the balcony of the papal apartments, the curtains part and out steps the former Cardinal Keith O'Brien, clad in the white soutanes of Pope Andrew I.
Pope Benedict XVI may only just have left our shores, but if we are to consider who might be the next Pope to visit Britain, why not begin by examining the chances of our own candidate.
Frankly, they are not too hot. At the moment, an American website, Gambling911.com, is offering odds of 50-1 that the next leader of the world's one billion Catholics will hail from Edinburgh and speak with a mild Northern Irish twang.
Considering that the website has as its favourite candidate Francis Arinze, the Nigerian candidate tipped to the first black Pope in 2005, who has retired, most informed commentators would double the odds to 100-1.
When asked about the chances of Scotland succeeding Poland and Germany as the exporter of leadership to the Vatican, John L Allen, of the National Catholic Reporter and biographer of Benedict XVI, replied: "Not great".
His reasons were as follows: O'Brien is not a well-known international figure, or particularly well known within the Vatican. "You have to give the sense that you would know how to navigate through the Vatican. I don't want to dismiss it completely out of hand, I mean, anything is possible, but he would not be on any list of the contenders."
Another reason is that O'Brien is a native English speaker, and there is a prejudice against an English-speaking Pope, as English is the language of globalisation against which Pope John Paul II and, to a lesser degree, Benedict XVI have railed.
Then again, Mr Allen is candid enough to admit that, after writing a biography of Cardinal Ratzinger, he included a chapter on the many reasons why he would not become Pope.
According to the Catholic Church, the Holy Spirit will guide the election, and should the spirit figure that a leader from a small European nation is best suited to lead the global Catholic Church, it could happen.
But, then again, even the incumbent does not believe that the Holy Spirit had the influence to which he is credited.
When asked on Bavarian television if the Holy Spirit is responsible for who gets elected Pope, Benedict XVI, or Cardinal Ratzinger as he was then, said: "I would not say so, in the sense that the Holy Spirit picks out the Pope … I would say that the Spirit does not exactly take control of the affair, but rather like a good educator, as it were, leaves us much space, much freedom, without entirely abandoning us."
A FEW years ago, over lunch at Roberto's, a popular clerical eatery on the Borgo Pio, a few hundred yards from the Vatican, a senior figure in the Church explained to me the importance of the role: "There are one billion Catholics in the world and the Pope is an enormously important political player to various degrees. There are places in the world where the Church is still the 800lb gorilla in the room and nobody makes a move politically without checking what the Church feels.
"Despite the reforms … the Church remains an enormously hierarchical organisation that means the personal passions of the guy who becomes Pope is enormously important."
But who will the next "guy" be? Many believe the new Pope will come from the Third World, probably South America where more than half the world's Catholics now live.
During the Conclave in 2005, there was jostling of positions between two Latin American candidates. Norberto Rivera Carrera, the Archbishop of Mexico City, was viewed as the strongest candidate, but along came Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga, the Archbishop of Tegucigalpa in Honduras.
He was perceived as throwing his hat into the ring even before he got his red hat, when he gave an interview to a Italian newspaper and explained that, although against another Vatican Council, he was keen on more reforms, cleverly attracting the liberals without alienating the conservatives.
Today, however, both have been eclipsed by Cardinal Leonardo Sandri, born in Argentina to Italian parents. At 66, he is a senior member of the Roman Curia (civil service) and is Prefect of the Congregation for the Oriental Churches, having previously served as an ambassador, or Papal Nuncio, to Venezuela and Mexico.
The next geographical region anxious to make its mark on the papacy is Africa, where the Church has expanded rapidly.
Since the retirement of Cardinal Arinze, a new figure has risen to carry Africa's hopes: Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, who only last year was appointed president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace by Benedict XVI.
At 61, he speaks six languages, including Hebrew, and defended the Pope's controversial comments that condoms were not a solution to the AIDS crisis in Africa, insisting that the condoms on sale in that continent were poor-quality.
YET to discuss a Pope from South America or Africa is to ignore the anxiety among Italians that the papacy, which many consider their own, should return home after its extended loan to Poland and Germany.
If so, who among the senior Italians is considered Papabli?
Well, many people believe the next Pope is not even a cardinal yet, said Mr Allen. The man of whom they speak is Archbishop Gianfranco Ravasi, president of the pontifical council for culture.
"He's adept, speaks multiple languages, is an intellectual and is generally viewed as having the right stuff," said Mr Allen.
Archbishop Ravasi is whispered as a successor to Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, the Archbishop of Milan, and has been adept at arguing that faith is no barrier to a belief in science.
Yet who would be regarded as the great white hope of the liberal wing of the Church and the person best suited to cleaning up the scandal of clerical abuse? Step forward Cardinal Christoph Schönborn, the 65-year-old Archbishop of Vienna.
Cardinal Schönborn has said the celibacy of priests should be re-examinded and the Church should embark on an "unflinching examination" of the causes of the scandal. He also accused the former Vatican secretary of state, Angelo Sodano, of blocking investigations into sex abuse crimes committed by his predecessor, the late Cardinal Hans Hermann Groër.
However, there is an Italian saying that "he who enters a conclave tipped to be Pope emerges a cardinal" - the favourites rarely win. This used to be because the rules governing the conclave dictated that a candidate had to achieve a two-thirds majority plus one, which favoured compromise candidates.
In 1996, the Pope changed the rules, so that after 30 rounds of votes, the members could vote to allow a straight majority victor. A new hotel to house the captive cardinals removes the uncomfortable conditions that characterised previous conclaves.
While the press can freely speculate on the Pope's successor, cardinals are prohibited, under pain of excommunication, from any such discussion during the pontiff's lifetime.
Despite Benedict's age, he appeared surprisingly robust during his visit to Britain.
"I would not be surprised if in five years or even ten years, Benedict XVI was still with us," said Mr Allen.
"As they say, German machinery is built to last."
SIC: SM/UK