The capacity crowd that flocked to Valencia’s bull ring to hear Mariano Rajoy, leader of Spain’s Popular party, were conservatively dressed, good-natured and all fired up to vote in Sunday’s general election.In Barcelona, meanwhile, another multitude gathered on Thursday night to cheer José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, the prime minister, who appealed for a huge turnout to secure the re-election of his Socialist party. Mr Zapatero’s supporters were as prosperous-looking as their conservative peers.
The extremely close race reflects the polarisation of Spanish politics. The electorate, however, has become much more homogenous after 14 years of uninterrupted economic growth. But with wealth come new headaches, such as bulging mortgages and big credit card bills, which cut across the political spectrum.
Affluence has also influenced social behaviour. Spain used to be a devout Roman Catholic country, but church attendance is falling, divorce is rising and more than 25 per cent of children are now born out of wedlock.
Three decades of democracy have allowed Spain’s natural libertarian bent to flourish anew, analysts say. Opinion polls show seven out of 10 Spaniards approve of gay marriage – legalised on Mr Zapatero’s watch.
While Mr Zapatero has made much of his social reforms, most Popular party supporters focus on the economy and law and order.
“People want to feel safe in their homes. They want to feel secure in their jobs. They don’t really care about the fringe issues,” Miguel Esteviu, a 59-year-old bricklayer, says on the fringes of the Valencia rally. “Zapatero promised a lot to everyone but he wasted all his time looking after minorities and immigrants.”
Indeed, the biggest social change in Spain since 2000 has been the arrival of almost 5m immigrants, who now form 10 per cent of the population – a greater proportion than France, Germany or the UK. This huge influx was absorbed without trouble but concern is now rising as the economy slows.
Mr Rajoy has exploited the fear of many PP supporters, who, like Mr Esteviu, link foreigners to theft and violent attacks – even though police figures show crime rates have remained stable or even fallen slightly, over the past four years.
“We’ve got gangs of thieves and murderers roaming the streets that we didn’t have before,” Mr Esteviu says. “Spain needs to be more selective about who it lets in.”
Mr Zapatero’s supporters argue he has ushered in an era of tolerance, modernity and multiculturalism. The prime minister has received glowing endorsements from artists and intellectuals. Scientists have thanked him for the government’s commitment to stem cell research – bitterly opposed by the Catholic hierarchy.
The Socialists have also been exploiting fears – that a reactionary, bigoted party beholden to the Catholic Church will return to power unless supporters turn out in force. “If the Popular party wins, I am emigrating to the UK,” says Paloma Carrasco, a film producer.
The Zapatero camp’s big concern, however, is that Socialist voters, who are less disciplined than their conservative counterparts, may stay at home out of complacency or to register dissastisfaction with the economy and immigration.
“Undecided?” asked a Socialist banner at the Barcelona rally: “Listen to the COPE every morning,” a reference to the ultra-reactionary Catholic radio network.
With some 1.7m Spaniards eligible to vote for the first time, Mr Zapatero has made a concerted pitch for the youth vote.
Rent subsidies for the under-30s came into force in January and Mr Zapatero is promising 150,000 low-cost homes.
However, he has been less successful in improving the lives of the millions of young Spaniards who struggle on salaries of about €1,000 a month.
In addition, many young people feel estranged from politics.
Laura Rodríguez, a physiotherapy student, says her friends avoid political discussions. “It’s just not considered cool,” she says.
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