LISBON, Feb 5 (Reuters) - This month, Catholic Portugal may decide to break ranks with a small group of countries including Ireland and Poland and legalise abortions, in a referendum which some cast as a deeper test of its readiness for progress.On the face of it, the Feb. 11 vote could resolve the estimated 23,000 abortions that take place in secret each year -- which Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates has called "Portugal's most shameful wound".But -- even though campaigners on both sides say the issue goes beyond a woman's right to choose -- almost half the Portuguese may ignore the referendum. That would repeat an experience from 1998 when only 32 percent voted and the outcome ruled invalid.The battle lines are clear: Portugal's Catholic church -- whose members make up 90 percent of the population -- argues that lifting the ban could open the way to moral decay in what is one of Europe's most traditional countries.
On the 'yes' side, liberals hope to stop women facing prison sentences if they abort, often in clandestine, back-street operations; they also want to usher in more open attitudes in a country where conservatism remains the overwhelming norm."A 'yes' vote will not just be a victory for women's rights, but will also show the possibility of victory against conservatism," said Alda Sousa, a member of the national executive of the Left Bloc of parties in parliament.If approved, abortions will be allowed in the first 10 weeks of pregnancy.
The Catholic Church warns that allowing abortions could open a slippery slope on other issues such as gay marriages."We are a country of great customs but the pressure on these big questions is beginning to be felt," said Cardinal Jose Policarpo, the head of the Catholic Church in Portugal.Polls show the number in favour of lifting the abortion ban outnumber those against, but more than 40 percent are either undecided or will not vote. If less than 50 percent of the electorate takes part the result is invalid.
BIG SHIFTS TAKE TIME
Since the 1998 vote, Portugal became one of the first countries to join the euro and had a booming economy for a few years followed by a bust that has undermined the country's prospects, not least its ability to compete in an increasingly globalised world. A massive budget deficit prompted the economic troubles and Socrates is introducing tough economic reforms to resolve it, but like deep social changes, big shifts take time.
Slow economic development is holding back social change, says Marina Costa Lobo, a political scientist at Lisbon's Social Sciences Institute. The country of 10 million people is the poorest in western Europe, with per capita income of about 15,000 euros ($19,530)."Generally, there is a strong relationship between economic development and more modern attitudes," she said. "Lagging development is the reason Portugal hasn't adopted new attitudes. Even the left here is conservative.
"That argument is borne out by the fact the abortion vote in 1998 showed the richer, urban centres like Lisbon and Setubal in favour while poorer, northern rural areas were against.In this country -- where the formal 'voce' version of 'you' remains the most widely used -- conservatism is also reinforced by one of Europe's fastest-ageing populations.Portugal's old-age dependency ratio, or the proportion of retired people relative to workers, is now at 24.9 percent, above the European average of 24.5 percent. But it will rocket to 58.1 percent by 2050.A Eurobarometer survey of 25 countries last year measuring 'socio-cultural' values showed Portugal was the seventh most traditional in Europe.
That aligned it with the poorer, new eastern European EU members.For modern-minded Portuguese that rating may be especially galling when considering Portugal's historic rival Spain has jumped into the ranking of Europe's third most liberal country as its economy boomed over the past decade."Spain is what Portugal could have been if it had developed," said Costa Lobo.
SPANISH EXAMPLE
Spain has allowed abortions since 1987 and its first gay marriages took place in July 2005. In Portugal, only 29 percent agree gay marriage should be allowed, against an average of 44 percent in the European Union, Eurobarometer showed.Other Portuguese say the country's lagging development is because of the years it spent under dictator Antonio Salazar. Salazar's 1933-74 regime controlled Portugal's economic, social and cultural life, helped by a repressive secret police force.
The Catholic Church was closely aligned with Salazar."Don't forget that Portugal was very closed for many, many years, with complete political control," said Ines Carvalho, a 35-year-old divorcee who intends to vote in favour of lifting the ban.That leaves the vote too close to call, and its outcome may anyway be invalid if too few turn out. "If that happens, it shows that Portuguese society is just not prepared for this change," said Carvalho.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Disclaimer
No responsibility or liability shall attach itself to either myself or to the blogspot ‘Clerical Whispers’ for any or all of the articles placed here.
The placing of an article hereupon does not necessarily imply that I agree or accept the contents of the article as being necessarily factual in theology, dogma or otherwise.
Sotto Voce